Primary Post Mortem, Part III: GOP Texas House Races

In a battle between the moderate and radically-conservative wings of the Texas Republican Party, Tuesday’s primary election was, well…a draw.

A pair of moderate Republicans were defeated while a GOP stalwart and crème de la crème of his party’s far-right-wing, anti-public education establishment met his political demise.

The two moderates, Republicans, Reps. Carter Casteel and Roy Blake, Jr., were defeated by candidates backed by money from school voucher proponent James Leininger. However, anti-public education Republican Rep. Kent Grusendorf, who chaired the House Committee on Public Education fell to a more moderate, pro-education candidate—Diane Patrick, a former member of the State Board of Education and an Arlington ISD school board member, by more than ten percentage points.

Meanwhile, another far-to-the-right Republican, Rep. Betty Brown (R-Terrell) managed to hold on to her seat following a blistering primary as did Rep. Leo Berman (R-Tyler).
And, the Republican Party lost one of two minority women serving in the Texas House as Elvira Reyna went down to defeat in her Dallas County district leaving Rep. Martha Wong as the GOP’s token female minority House member.

A look at the various races

Of particular interest is the race of Rep. Carter Casteel (R-New Braynfels) in HD-73 in Central Texas. First, the numbers:

Keep in mind that there are reportedly 180 plus mail-in ballots that have not been counted yet, which means this race isn’t likely over.

However, Casteel did fall victim to a lot of dirty campaigning on the part of her opponent, Leininger-backed Nathan Macias.  The district includes Bandera, Comal, Gillispe and Kendall counties. Plus, it overlaps partially with Sen. Frank Malda’s SD-19. I suppose there is some possibility here that a few normal Casteel voters crossed over to help out the conservative Malda in his run against Rep. Carlos Uresti in the Democratic Primary. Given the support that Malda received from high-profile Republicans, I wouldn’t be at all surprised by this. Either way, with a recount reportedly a definate, I’m not counting this as a Casteel defeat just yet. With any luck, another Leininger candidate will have lost when it is all said and done.

Next, looking at HD-7 in East Texas (Gregg and part of Smith Counties), here is one race where a Leininger-backed candidate could have done very well given the area’s conservative roots. However, Mark Williams’ attacks on Rep. Tommy Merritt (R-Longview) seriously backfired, resulted in a lawsuit, and sent Williams down to defeat (that and Merritt’s popularity within the district). Here are the numbers:

It is, however, interesting to note that this is the closest a GOP challenger has come to defeating Merritt in several years.

Another East Texas Leininger 5 race pitted Rep. Roy Blake Jr. of Nacgodoches against the man he defeated two years ago in HD 9: former State Rep. Wayne Christian (R-Center).

This time, Christian came out on top:

This was the only race I am aware of where a Leininger-opposed incumbent specifically used Leininger’s name in radio or television advertising. Blake blasted Leininger and Christian in a radio spot that ran earlier in the campaign. Although I’d predicted Christian to come out ahead in this one, the margin was surprising to me. And, it is one more moderate lost to the House.

Looking now at the race the GOP is no doubt very upset by, the Grusendorf/Patrick race in HD 94:

In this one, many were surprised by Grusendorf’s defeat. However, in the climate of the predominantly suburban HD 94, it’s not surprising it turned out this way. Districts such as this (part of Tarrant County including Arlington) aren’t exactly anti-education bastions, and Texas voters are very dissatisfied with Rick Perry, Grusendorf, Speaker Tom Craddick and the Republican’s approach to education in general. Here’s how the numbers came down:

Moderate Republicans also had a chance Tuesday night to replace Rep. Leo Berman (R-Tyler) with former Smith County Commissioner Gus Ramirez (R-Tyler) in HD6.

However, Berman held on in spite of Ramirez’s popularity in Smith Couny. But, it was close and Ramirez actually led in early voting:

The closeness of this race surprised me, actually. Though Ramirez was elected to the Smith County Commissioners Court, it was in one of four commissioners’ precincts, and not in a distict that encompasses the most wealthy, lilly white areas of Tyler itself, if memory serves correctly. I expected, given Tyler voter’s reluctance to elect minorities outside of various single-member districts, to see Ramirez with something like 40 percent of the vote. However, in spite of the ultra-conservative nature of this district, it seems voters were once again sending a message to the far-right that their policies and politics aren’t working.

The Berman/Ramirez showdown wasn’t the only race where an Establishment, far-right-wing Republican was pitted against a moderate. In HD 4, Betty Brown came dangerously close to defeat:

Once again, this is a race where it appears moderate Republicans were trying to send a message to hard-right candidates.

And, in a surprising upset not likely due to anything except a lack of organized campaigning and possibly voter retaliation against anything and everything to do with the Republican Establishment, Elvira Reyna lost a primary in HD 101 in Dallas County:

Again, given that exactly 64 votes separate these, this one may not be over, either.

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