Without DeLay: Two Takes On The Future of CD 22

Earlier this week, I asked conservative blogger Right of Texas to consider making a guest post here on Capitol Annex as a counterpoint to thoughts I have on the future of CD 22 absent Tom DeLay.

I thought it would be interesting to show the thougts of two bloggers, one from the Left and one from the Right, side by side. After all, what people on the “right” think is important to those of us trying to get out the Democratic message.
Right of Texas is a fairly new conservative politics blog in the Texas Blogsphere. I asked ROT to provide a counterpoint to my thoughts because I feel it is one of the best-written GOP blogs in Texas particularly because it is absent of the whining and self-rightousness many other conservative bloggers seem to espouse.

After the jump are my and ROT’s thoughts.

Capitol Annex’s Thoughts On DeLay aftermath:

Though the media continues to examine the “whys” related to Tom DeLay’s recent announcment that he will end his campaign for another term in Congress and resign from that body, the real question on the minds of most people in Texas isn’t why DeLay did what he did. It is, rather, what the aftermath of the announcement will bring.

I suspect two things: First, that any coming special election will be an expensive, multi-candidate battle. I would not be surprised to see five or more total candidates vying for the seat. Second, I don’t believe that DeLay’s impending departure from the political scene will truly make a difference in whether or not Democrats win in CD-22 or in other districts around the nation where DeLay allies are being hounded because of their connections to the indicted soon-to-be-former Congressman.

It is already rumored that the field to replace DeLay will include candidates ranging from now independent former conservative Republican Congressman Steve Stockman to the mayor of Sugar Land and State Senator Kyle Janek. A bloody special election battle (including a likely special election runoff) will leave whomever the winner is bloodied, bruised and vunerable going into the November elections.

Why do I think this will not make a difference for Lampson in CD-22 or others? Because, just as the Republican Party continues to tie Democratic candidates to the shenigans of Bill Clinton, Texas Republicans of the present political era will not be able to wiggle out from under the mantle of being the party of DeLay for years to come. Whomever among them that attempts to assume DeLay’s seat (and there are rumors that a hand-picked successor exists), they will have to spend more time proving they aren’t made in the DeLay mold than they will spend expounding upon their own ideas.

DeLay very well may have made his decision to resign in an attempt to thwart Lampson’s campaign. In fact, he probably timed it in order to have the maximum negative impact on Lampson: funding three election day campaigns is far more expensive than just paying for a general election campaign. But, though the district does lean Republican, it has become clear that the people in Congressional District 22 want new leadership. And, by new leadership, I don’t mean another Republican. DeLay and his party have proved to the residents of this District (and, indeed, to everyone in the nation) that they are not effective leaders and that their entire party is tainted by a “culture of corruption” not seen on either side of the aisle since the days of Watergate.

Will Lampson have a tougher time against another candidate? Perhaps. However, all he must do is effectively coin his new opponent as DeLay’s successor, and do everything he can to paint him or her as a continuation of the “same old, same old,” DeLay machine.

No matter how pristine the replacement player for DeLay may be, he will have difficulty recovering from having his photo side-by-side with DeLay’s in dozens of mailers and television ads—especially if DeLay shares some of his million-dollar campaign warchest with the new nominee. If there is one thing that can taint a DeLay successor faster than anything, it’s money. Any dollar from DeLay, and indeed any dollar from major DeLay contributors, can be used to Democrats’ advantage.

It will be a slippery slope for both parties leading up to November. But, I believe, in the wake of the DeLay departure, Democrats can and will prevail.

Right of Texas‘ thoughts on the aftermath of the DeLay resignation.

Congressman DeLay’s rapid fall from Majority Leader, to a regular Congressman, to citizen of Alexandria was a Christmas gift for the far-left throughout Texas, and America. While DeLay’s actions and associations with Jack Abramoff are inexcusable, the fact remains that Abramoff associated with many in Washington. If we are to be fair, and sink DeLay with Abramoff, why not also Senate Majority Leader Nevada Senator Harry Reid who was also in dealings with Jacky boy? Or Former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle?

 

 

With DeLay stepping aside, I have no doubt that a Republican will continue to represent the 22 ^nd District of Texas.

Polls in the district continued to indicate that the constituency would support Lampson, or another candidate over Congressman DeLay. These poll results should not be mistaken to mean that the district is Democratic, or liberal . In a Zogby poll conducted in DeLay’s district within the past year, when asked if they would vote for DeLay or another candidate, the constituents responded 38% for DeLay and 45% for another candidate. In the same poll, questions were asked about Terri Schiavo. The country as a whole agreed with the removal of the feeding tube by a large margin, but Texas’ 22^nd District did not. DeLay’s constituents said 44% to 35% that they opposed the removal of the tube. When asked if DeLay’s religious faith should play a major roll in shaping policy, 48% felt it should, while 45% felt it shouldn’t.

 

This district has a huge base of Born Again conservative Christians, who will come in droves to vote for the candidate of higher “morality”. I believe the reason Congressman DeLay was not doing well in the polls, is because his actions (the suspected bribes ect.) were seemingly un-Christian to his hard-right constituency.

 

Former Congressman Steve Stockman , and Sugar Land Mayor David Wallace are already eyeing the seat, as well as former primary opponent Tom Campbell. I don’t believe the Republican base will support Campbell, as running against incumbent DeLay was a slap in the face. I think party leadership will turn their heads to Campbell also, simply on his previous run.  I believe DeLay’s war chest will go to his handpicked successor in the district, as well as spread across different races in the nation.

 

I can only imagine Former Congressman Nick Lampson’s reaction to this was not a happy one. While open seats are usually harder to defend, in this case it’s easier to defend for Houston area GOPers. The district was designed for the purpose of electing a Republican, and the results have proven so. It has gone Republican in the past, and it will go Republican again in November.

Thanks to Right of Texas for his thoughts.

Tweet This Post   Ping This Post

Bookmark It