GOP Outs, Rumor & Educated Speculation On DeLay Decision

The DeLay decision by Federal District Judge Sam Sparks today has been the buzz of the Blogsphere and has resulted in a lot of rumor and speculation about GOP “outs,” and what not.

I want to address a couple of things in this post. First, what “outs” the GOP may or may not have at this point (most of which are the subject of some hilarious rumors). Then, I’ll make some educated speculation about what the 5th Circuit might do.

First, the most juicy rumor I’ve heard today is that DeLay will now engineer himself off the ballot by pleading guilty to some of the charges Ronnie Earle has proffered against him in Travis County, and secure a conviction of some sort so long as he is able to avoid jail time.

This is utterly idiotic. For one thing, if DeLay had a conviction, it would not matter, and he’d actually be the second Congressional Candidate in Texas this cycle with some type of conviction on their record.  Provisions in federal law prohibit states from making laws that govern qualifications for federal positions like members of Congress as they are set forth in the U.S. Constitution. Thus, don’t think DeLay will be rushing to plea anytime soon because it would make no difference one way or the other concerning his eligibility to be on the ballot.

I’m also hearing that speculation is running rampant that DeLay will say “to hell with it” and make the race and tell the GOP to call off their dogs. I don’t think this is likely, either.  For one thing, even though he’s Tom DeLay, he won’t have the advantage of incumbency. Since he’s resigned from congress, he can’t campaign to be “re-elected,” but rather, would have to campaign to be “elected.” Further, now that he has resigned, it would be worse politically for him to run given that he can be attacked for leaving his district unrepresented. Either way this pans out, with DeLay on the ballot is a sure loser.

I’ve also heard a rumble or two that there may be some litigation brewing within CD-22 itself. I’ve heard two versions of this: one involves the third party candidate starting up a lawsuit and either joining forces with the Ds or the Rs and another involving litigation by the “wanna-be DeLays”…it’s such a dumb rumor I’m not even going to repeat it in its entirety except to say that, if you hear it, I’d disregard it.

The only other rumor worth mentioning (and the only one I find even slightly credible) is that, if DeLay is forced to stay on the ballot, the GOP may get together in CD-22 and annoint a successor, and spend massive amounts of money waging a write-in campaign. That’s right. A write-in campaign. That’s perfectly legal and, if you throw two million dollars at it, it well may pick up 20 percent of the vote. The deadline for write-ins to file is no earlier than July 29 and no later than August 29.

This final “rumor” is more plausable because, as I recall, there are actually lists of eligible write-in candidates for various positions placed in every voting booth, so the voter education aspect of such a strange campaign wouldn’t be that difficult. Plus, as much of this Congressional District is fairly affluant and well-educated, I could see such a campaign as this working, but never in such numbers to cause Lampson any problems.

Now, to speculation about what the appeals court may do.

First off, I don’t expect we’ll be waiting more than a month before a decision is made. I do not expect, however, for the court to do any emergency stay of Judge Sparks’ orders. I would expect this case would require oral arguments as well before it is decided.

Finally, I did try to root through some election cases decided by the 5th circuit (and even other circuits) via FindLaw. Sadly, I couldn’t find anything remotely similar to the present situation that had been litigated anytime in the recent past.

This means the 5th will probably end up breaking new ground, which would likely mean an appeal to the SCOTUS.

However, if any redistricting fixes go so far as to impact the 22nd, all of this would be a moot point, I believe. If the boundaries of the 22nd change one little bit, then I believe all bets are off and it would be up for grabs, without DeLay.

Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if the State, in submitting its maps, don’t work both east and west in terms of redrawing Bonilla’s CD-23 in order to cause some kind of impact to DeLay’s old district.

Of course, if they do, that could result in another round of litigation.

Ahhh, what a mess of speculation!

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