Strayhorn’s Antics Catch Up With Her As Polling Numbers Implode

Carole Keeton Strayhorn’s polling numbers have taken a major nosedive, sinking her to the bottom of the field of four major candidates behind humorist Kinky Friedman, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/Zogby Poll while Democrat Chris Bell polled second to incumbent Governor Rick Perry.

Strayhorn, a Republican running as an independent, dropped 3.1 points since June polling, for an over all drop of 9.5 points since January.

Perry continues to hold a lead in the field though his numbers remain in the 30s. His polling numbers increased six tenths of a point since June, with no change since January. Bell, meanwhile, climbed into second place with a 1.1 point gain since June (2.9 since January).

Another Republican running as an independent, Richard “Kinky” Friedman, moved up 3.2 points since June (6.3 since January) to overtake Strayhorn.

Likely factors contributing to Strayhorn’s elephantine plummet are voter fatigue and continued negative media attention she has received as a result of the litigious nature of her campaign, which recently filed a second lawsuit against the Texas Secretary of State in which she seeks to be listed on the ballot as “Grandma.” A poll by an Austin television station shows more than 60 percent of those responding believe the litigation is harmful to Strayhorn’s campaign.
According to Jason Stanford of the Chris Bell campaign, a contributor to Bell’s rise was his recent round of television commercials to boost his name recognition:

Second, this poll was in the field July 11-19, and “Think Big” went on the air in markets across Texas on July 18. That’s not enough time to make a big difference in this poll, but if it did, it was a positive one. We expect the August tracking poll to really reflect the results of Chris’ TV ad. I’m dying to see that one.

In addition to the television commercials, Bell’s recent environmental tour across the state, continued strong stand against the Trans Texas Corridor, and the fact that many “Anybody But Perry” voters probably now realize Bell is the best option to defeat the incumbent probably played a role as well.

Perry, meanwhile, remains stuck in the 30s after two rounds of statewide television ads—one paid for by his campaign and one set relating to his tax reform proposals which were paid for with corporate money.

As the Fort Worth Star-Telegram pointed out in Monday’s editions, it is clear the winner of this year’s race for governor will be decided by a simple plurality as opposed to being won by one candidate with fifty percent of the vote.

As the Bell camp has noted before, with only a plurality needed and the Republican vote effectively being split Perry and Strayhorn (and, to a lesser extent, Friedman), Bell has an excellent chance of coming out on top as long as he is able to hold the statewide Democratic base.

Although Strayhorn has made serious attempts to attract Democratic voters, her declining poll number show she’s not doing a very good job in that department.