NYT On Redistricting

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The New York Times has up an article on Texas Redistricting, complete with a photo of Ciro Rodriguez.

There are a couple of things I want to note from the article: one about Rodriguez and one about appeals.

First, regarding appeals:

Jose Garza, a lawyer for the League of United Latin American Citizens, which is offering two maps, said he and most others involved in the case fully expected the judicial panel to give deference to the Republican leaders’ plan, if for no other reason than such panels have historically done so. Either way, the losing side will probably pursue an appeal that could eventually head back to the Supreme Court.

Then there is the question of timing. The three-judge panel has set oral arguments for Aug. 3. The Texas secretary of state said a map was needed by Aug. 8 for ballots and precinct maps to be ready for the November voting.

Will there be time for a primary before the general election, or will there be an “open primary” in November, a kind of free-for-all of candidates followed by special general election in the affected districts soon after? Is there even time for a Supreme Court appeal before November, or will the voting take place under whatever map emerges from the three-judge panel?

All of these questions posed by the NYT are legitimate questions. Clearly, this round before the judges won’t be the last for this bout of mapmaking. I would also think that, separate and apart from the maps, there could be legal challenges to whatever method of election the justices decide upon. I now wonder if the Texas Leigslature could be called into special session and inact an election plan different from what the judges determine. Furthermore, if the Republicans don’t like the map even though the court approves it, will there be a special session on redistricting? I’d say it’s possible that there would be and that then, we’d have the issue of the court’s map versus the legislature’s map, the latter of which would require not only pre-clearance but a fresh round of litigation (I would suspect).
Next, note this about Ciro Rodriguez:

As the gathering in the South San Antonio neighborhood of Harlandale showed, no matter which map prevails, one candidate’s distress may be another’s boon. The group was the second this week to have been assembled by Ciro D. Rodriguez, one of the Democratic incumbents who lost his seat in 2004, and who uses the small residence as his makeshift office, keeping his political apparatus alive.

The gathering had two purposes: to look at the various maps and see how they affected Hispanic voters, especially those in southern Bexar County, and to see if any of the maps were of particular help to Mr. Rodriguez’s political future.

One of the maps that might tempt Mr. Rodriguez to run, though not his favorite, is the Republican leaders’ map. By edging Mr. Doggett out of the 25th Congressional District, it would provide an opportunity for Mr. Rodriguez.

“There are a few of them that offer me some real possibilities,” he said. “But I’m not going to be running if some of these plans come out, especially if they break up Bexar County too much.”

I wonder if Rodriguez would run in the state’s version of 25 if Doggett decided to run there, too? Or, is it now a foregone conclusion that if the state’s map is adopted, Doggett will run against Lamar Smith since there is a genuine dispute over whether or not Doggett and Smith are paired under the maps?

I’m thinking Ciro’s best chances are with those maps that pair Bonillia and Cuellar or shift Bonillia out of the more Democratic areas. I don’t see, at this point, Rodriguez challenging Cuellar again in CD 28, unless it is in a very, very, very remade district.

Written by Vince Leibowitz

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Vince Leibowitz posted this article under Redistricting on Tuesday, July 25th, 2006 at 6:30 am You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a comment. Pinging is currently not allowed. View Technorati Linkbacks.