Labor Day: It’s Off To The Races
Vince Leibowitz | Sep 04, 2006 | Comments 4 |
Labor Day: it’s simeltaniously half-time and kick off of the 2006 election cycle. In a year that has already proven to be one for the history books, I thought today would be a good day to take a look at a few Congressional and state legislative races which I think are interesting and/or worthy of note (and “interesting” and “worthy of note” means some of these aren’t top tier races, but races I think are interesting).
In fact, I’ve actually reduced myself to ‘ranking’ some of the races (well, sort of).
Here is the first installment, on Congressional races (excluding CD-23, the thought of which makes my head spin on a holiday weekend; I also excluded CD-21 and will put both in a later post). I’ll post the Lege races later tonight or in the morning.
Have a look:
Top TierÂ
Congressional District 17
Soundbite: Though still a top tier race because it is a seat Democrats must hold, the district has become less than competitive for Republican Van Taylor.
The players: Chet Edwards (D-Waco), the incumbent & Van (aka Nicholas van Campen) Taylor, (R-West).
The mascots: The Congressman vs. The Apologist
The Line: Demographics based on past voting trends for other offices are Republican (more than just “leans Republican), but this district will be won by Chet Edwards again.
The field: Congressional District 17 (Hood, Johnson, Bosque, Hill, McLennan, Limestone, Robertson, Madison, Brazos, Grimes & Burleson Counties)
The game: Back in January, the pundits were calling this one of the “few” truly competitive races in the nation.
After all, Edwards is a Democratic Congressman representing President Bush’s home congressional district (which, incidently, voted for the president’s re-election overwhelmingly in 2004). And, he’s facing a multi-millionaire ExxonMobile stock holder whose daddy is on the board of a company with Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick (R-Midland).
However, nine months (well, six since the Republican Primary) have made a difference in this race. Taylor’s fund-raising can’t seem to get off high center, even after a visit from Vice President Cheney. He’s not raised as much as Dragon Lady Arlene Wholgemuth did in her vicious and nasty run against Edwards in 2004.
Taylor is somewhat of a permanent “outsider” in this race, although he frequently points out that Chet Edwards has moved before to run for legislative office (memo to Van: maybe so, but he’s been there a lot longer than you).
The only positives Taylor may have going for him is that the albatross of “you knocked 150,000 children off of health insurance” can’t be hung around his neck, and that he doesn’t have the Dragon Lady image problem Wholgemuth had in ‘04. However, Taylor (aka Exxon Taylor to some) has an entire new set of problems: $3.00 a gallon gas and the fact that he holds some serious stock in an oil company.
The trash talk: The juciest rumor (which actually comes to me from D.C) right now is that, while the NRCC will continue with its commitment of money for TV dollars and possibly radio ads, they will not actually fund any field staff or any GOTV. While the NRCC isn’t publicly writing the district off because it’s the president’s home turff, the rumor is they’re spending far less than they would have. Plus, Taylor’s recent appearance on Hardball did him no favors with Congressional Republicans.
The final score: Chet will win; the district leans Republican, but without Bush on the ballot and Carole Keeton Strayhorn and Chris Bell both more popular in Central Texas right now than Perry because of the Trans Texas Corridor, look for less straight ticket voters. I’d predict Chet by a margin at least 2-3 percentage points than he faired in 2004, possibly as much as five (keep in mind this is a very red district).
Top Tier
Congressional District 22
Soundbite: It’s all over but the shouting in CD-22. Lampson has it in a walk, and the Republicans have embarassed themselves. A pick up.
The players: Nick Lampson (D-Stafford), Bob Smither (L-Friendswood), Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R-Houston), Don Richardson (R-Houston).
The mascots: The Dragon Slayer vs. Barbie & The Wingnuts
The line: Can you say “pick up?”
The field: Texas’ Congressional District 22, home to Tom DeLay (when he’s not claiming to be in Virginia). (Harris (Part), Fort Bend, Galveston (Part), Brazoria (Part)).
The game: This race has gone from “oh, that will be fun!” back when Nick Lampson made his announcement last year to “gotcha!” It’s a sure pick-up.
Lampson, the former Congressman who fell to Congressman/network talking head Ted Poe in the wake of Tom DeLay’s redistricting has made one of the biggest political comebacks in Texas history and helped bring down Tom DeLay (R-Sugar Land) in the process.
After the regisnation/lawsuit/withdrawal, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, a Houston City Councilwoman and dermatologist formerly known as Shelley Sekula-Rodriguez has emerged as the GOP’s “one true annointed write-in” but still faces an uphill battle to defeat Lampson. While she’s probably assured of winning the Rick Perry-engineered special election in a walk thanks merely to the strength of name recognition and Republican voters, her winning as a write-in is a near impossibility.
Of course, Republicans have no one to blame but Tom DeLay for the fact that they will be calling Nick Lampson “Congressman” come January. And, even GOP leaders in the district have recognized this and said the blame clearly lies at DeLay’s doorstep (whether that be in Sugar Land or Virginia). Even if DeLay were still in the race, this district would be a pick-up regardless of how much money was poured in on DeLay’s behalf.
The somewhat dangerous oddity in the race, however is Libertarian Bob Smither. Though Libertarian websites allege Smither has great name recognition in the district, that remains to be seen outside his home turf. However, some Republicans (including Georgia wingnut Bob Barr) have defected from the One True Write-In and endorsed Smither because he said he’ll caucus with Republicans. While this development probably left most Libertarians snickering more than sobbing (after all, if Smither won, it’d just be him and Ron Paul caucusing in a House janitor’s closet), national libertarians are salivating and seeing this race as the one race that could prove their party is relevant.
In the end, however, Steve Stockman (who is running in what my blog-colleague Charles Kuffner has taken to calling the “very special election”) or anybody else could be runing against Lampson with endorsements from Charlton Heston, Jesus (complete with personal appearances in the district) and President Bush (both of them) and it wouldn’t make a bit of difference: Nick Lampson will win.
The trash talk: The $3 or $4 million promised by TinaFish Benkiser and the Republicans for Shelley Sekula-Gibbs will not materialize, especially with more than one write-in in the race, which serves as the GOP’s perfect excuse to spend their money in a race where it might matter.
Furthermore, I’ve been hearing a lot of rumblings from D.C. sources that GOP Congressmen in hotly contested races around the nation are highly pissed that the Republicans are even considering spending this kind of money to clean up an uncleanable, unwinnable mess created by Tom DeLay. The general consensus seems to be that this is all DeLay’s fault and that no more money should be spent cleaning up his messes, and to let the district go.
The final score: Lampson by about three touch-downs. Sekula-Gibbs will win the “very special election,” and have to resign her council seat in Houston for the privilige of being a Congresswoman with nothing to do.(NOTE: If I was writing about CD-23 in this piece, it would vie for a spot with the Sklar race at the top of Tier Two; Since money isn’t the only thing in my mind that determines the nature of a race, too much remains to be seen in CD-23 to determine if it is a top-tier race)
Tier Two
Congressional District 14
The Soundbite: Outside of CD-22, this is Democrats best chance for a pick up. It’s rapidly moved up tier two and could be a Tier One race.
The Players: Congressman Ron Paul (R-Sufrside), the incumbent and Shane Sklar (D-Edna).
The mascots: The Cowboy vs. Dr. No.
The Line: After Congressional District 22, this is Texas Democrats’ most likely pick-up. Definately more than a blip on the radar.
The Field: Congressional District 14 (Victoria, Aransas, Calhoun, Jackson, Wharton, Matagorda, Brazoria, Chambers and part of Galveston counties)
Cool fact: Shane Sklar is endorsed by former Houston Oiler’s Coach Bum Phillips. (Yes, the Bum Phillips).
The Game: Failed Libertarian Presidential Candidate Ron Paul (R-Surfside) faces Shane Sklar, a one-time staffer for Chet Edwards and former head of the influential Texas & Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association.
Ron Paul’s camp has taken a shine to calling Sklar, who at 30 is the youngest Congressional candidate in Texas from one of the two major parties, a “lobbyist” because he registered as one to do his work with the Cattle Raiser’s Association.
And, so far, that’s about the only negative thing the Paul camp has managed to come up with.
On the other side of the aisle, Sklar finds himself in an enviable position: running in a hurricane district against one of a handful of U.S. Congressmen brazen enough to vote against hurricane relief (who later lied about his vote). That’s one of dozens and dozens of wacky votes Sklar will be calling Paul out on during this cycle.
Early polling showed Sklar with some serious advantages over “Dr. No,” and Sklar has raised decent money. Although they will grumble about doing so, expect some national support (I’d bet on a field worker or two rather than direct cash) to flow into this district as Sklar runs a groundgame Paul hasn’t seen in an opponent in some time.
This is also one that the DCCC could make a wise investment in. Though the district clearly trends Republican, it could easily be said that that trend is more “conservative” than simply, “Republican.” Sklar, a conservative Democrat, fits that mold and will be a more reliable vote for agriculture and other things of interest to the people of the district than Paul is.
Too, Sklar’s got the endorsement of the Farm Bureau Ag Fund. In 2004, this is an endorsement that not even Charlie Stenholm, then ranking Dem on the House Ag committee, picked up. Because of his background and that he’d be the only currently active rancher (or person who makes a living in agriculture) in the Texas delegation, expect to see some big name national Ag PAC dollars in this race. While they may not be large amounts of money, the names will make you take notice.
The trash talk: The national Republican party does not really like Ron Paul. Of course, they play nice with him because he puts that “R” behind his name. But his love for the gold standard and wacky voting record are something they’d rather not have in Congress. If later polling shows this to be a closer race, you may see Paul going to private donors and Libertarian-leaning PACS (if any exist) for money rather than depending on anything from the NRCC, which has its hands full anyway.
The Final Score: This one depends on the money. If Shane Sklar can raise three quarters of a million or more, and saturate TV, mailboxes and radio, then he’s within striking distance to win.
Some may question my assessment of this district in the wake of changes in CD-23, So I’ll note this: Is this a better chance of a pickup than in CD-23? Yes and no. Yes, because there aren’t multiple Democrats who will be at each other’s throats and bloodying the ultimate runoff candidate. No, because the money simply isn’t in CD-14 like it is or will be in CD-23. This district was in play before CD-23 was. Yes, because Ron Paul neither has the national GOP prominence Bonillia has nor does he have the cash. No, because now that CD-23 is somewhat in play, any DCCC support for races other than CD 22 and CD 17 will probably end up in CD-23.
Tier Two
Congressional District 31
The Soundbite: Looking better every day.
The players: Congressman John Carter (R-Round Rock) and Mary Beth Harrell (D-Killeen).
The mascots: Military Mom & The Dodger
The line: No polling numbers in this district that I know of, but the continual beating the opponent has taken in the press over his refusal to debate isn’t good. Neither is being compared to Clayton “rape is like a fog” Williams.
The field: Congressional District 31 (Erath, Hamilton, Coryell, Bell, Georgetown, Milam, Falls, Robertson (Part))
The game: Mary Beth Harrell continues to impress many as one of the party’s best challengers this election cycle. The mother of soldiers and military wife is perfectly suited to represent this district if she can pry it from the cold, clammy hands of one John “Scaredy Cat” Carter.
Harrell has not only continued to drive home Carter’s many lies, hypocrasies and foolish actions to the district, but she has drawn him out to the point that he’s evidently scared to death of a one-on-one debate. His arrogance of telling the world that Carter had not “earned the right” to debate him prompted one media outlet to compare him to Clayton Williams.
There is no doubt that this is a red district and a difficult pickup. But, more so than CD-10, CD-31 has an incumbent that is bumbling and stumbling. Carter’s continued idiocy is what will boost Harrell’s numbers in this race.
The trash talk: A lot of snickering was heard in and around the district when the Austin Chronicle reported that the campaign phone numbers posted on Carter’s campaign website didn’t work. He’s also reportedly going to get a “talking to” by some local Republicans about his debate comments and his percieved fear of a debate forum. Plus, I’ve heard that some local Republicans—especially women—are pissed at Carter and percieve his slight of Harrell as a slight of the female sex. So, he may have some work to do with the Soccer Moms.
The final score: Is this a pickup? In all honesty, it’s doubtful. But, if anyone can turn the district around, it is a candidate like Harrell. Capatilizing on the anti-Republican sentiment among the electorate and her opponent’s gaffes, Harrell may make this the surprise race of the election cycle and come within striking distance by election day.
(NOTE: If I were writing about CD-21 in this piece, I’d put it here. National netroots support and Courage’s excellent campaign will leave Smith bloodied enough that he likely will never see a committee chairmanship, but a win in the newly reconfigured district will be very, very tough).
Tier Two
Congressional District 10
The Soundbite: A good Democratic candidate, but a tough race for a pick-up.
The players: Congressman Michael McCaul (R-Austin), Ted Ankrum (D-Cypress), and Michael Badnarik (L-Austin).
The line: Recent polling numbers show that McCaul has high negatives in this district. However, it’s still an uphill climb, but one that puts it in the lower top-tier.
The field: Congressional District 10, the Austin-to-Houston district (Travis, Lee, Bastrop (Part), Burleson, Washington, Austin, Waller, Harris (part))
The game: What are the odds that Texas would have not one—but two!—Congressional races this cycle featuring failed Libertarian presidential candidates? (See above).
Aside from that, Michael Badnarik, who was the Libs presidential nominee in 2004, is a non-entity in this race no matter how many national Libertarian dollars he brings into the district.
And, though those recent poll numbers show good news for the challenger, they also mean that, if the incumbent is worrked about them, he’ll start spending like crazy.
Anrkum makes this a more competitive race and helps hold another Republican Congressman accountable to voters, but it’s only the recent polling numbers that brought this race from the top of the third-tier races into the second tier.
The Trash Talk: Republicans are reportedly somewhat worried that McCaul’s name recognition isn’t what it should be and that general, nationwide GOP backlash could cost him votes.
The final score: Unless lightening of several million dollars strikes, this one will go to McCaul, but Anrkum will lay good groundwork for future Democratic runs in the district.
Third Tier
Congressional District 19
The Soundbite: A good candidate, but a red district and not a likely pick up.
The players: Congressman Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock) and Robert Ricketts (D-Lubbock); there is also a write in whose candidacy will have no impact on this race.
The mascots: The Prairie Dog vs. The Professor
The line: The fun is in the fight.
The field: Congressional District 19 (West Texas). (Deaf Smith, Parmer, Castro, Bailey, Lamb, Hale, Cochran, Yoakum, Gaines, Terry, Lynn, Lubbock, Garza, Gloyd, Kent, Borden, Howard,Fisher, Nolan, Taylor, Callahan, Eastland, Stephens, Sheckelford, Young, Archer)
The game: This district is a reliable Republican district, and Neugebauer will sadly have no more trouble with Ricketts than he had picking off Charlie Stenholm in 2004. However, Ricketts campaign (and private efforts like the website, Blue 19th) are doing a lot to draw attention to Neugebauer’s record and actions, not to mention holding him accountable for a voting record that has been less than friendly to the region’s agriculture community.
This race is one of those third-tier races where, though chances of turning the district blue are low, the Democratic candidate running is a quality candidate who could, running in a less red district with more financial support, be a good contender to ‘flip’ a district.
After all, Ricketts is a CPA with a PhD who holds an endowed chair at Texas Tech, for goodness sakes. When it comes to debates about the budget, deficit and government spending, there’s no question Ricketts could walk circles around Neugebauer and leave him tied to the post with his own leash.
This race also (oddly enough) has become one of the races with the best potential to spark internet interest, thanks in no small part to the constant patrolling of the folks at Blue 19th, who won’t let a single Neugebauer statement go by without pointing out why the sitting congressman is nuts, including his likening of Hispanics to Hezbollah.
The bottom line is that Neugebauer isn’t getting a free ride. Ricketts will hold him accountable for his actions and hopefully increase Democratic turnout, which could benefit Bell and other statewides in the region.
The trash talk: Republicans aren’t worried about Neugebauer losing this race, but they are worried about his star becoming tarnished. From within the district, I’m also hearing that some of the prominent Republicans in the district are trying their best to keep their mouths shut in public about some of Neugebauer’s past votes and some of the stupid things he says.
The final score: Neugebauer wins it. However, if you want to make a contribution to a candidate whose race is in the third-tier because of the redness of the district and not the quality of the candidate (and who in Texas doesn’t want to see Randy Neugebauer given hell?) this is a race you should consider.
Related posts:
Filed Under: 2006 Texas Elections
Thanks, fun to think of that caucus in the closet..,
I was just saying that by the time DeLay’s legacy is excreted from the congress, that the “Party of Harding”
could caucus in a porta-potty.
Here’s Kinky’s latest blather on immigration:
“My immigration policy is ‘Remember the Alamo.’”
Would someone please tell Kinky that “Remember the Alamo” isn’t an immigration policy?
Kinky’s latest comments reported by Brandi Grissom of the El Paso Times are distrubing. Kinky says Mexico should face what he calls the “Israeli discount,” and Kinky insists our immigration policy should be “ruthless.” Here is what else the El Paso Times reports:
Until this latest about face on the immigration issue, Kinky had been bragging that his Five Mexican Generals plan was a great idea:
Of course, this isn’t the first time Kinky has flip-flopped on immigration reform. Kinky has also recently added amnesty for illegal aliens into his grab-bag of doubtable ideas regarding border security. With his announcement that Kinky now favors “amnesty for hard-working illegal immigrants already in this country,” Kinky bragged that “I’ve been urging action on the border for over a year.”
Going back and listing all the bad ideas that Kinky has proposed with regard to border security makes for very interesting reading.
For example, as the Austin American Statesman noted, “His position on immigration has been wobbly. On March 28, his campaign provided a statement describing Friedman as favoring a guest worker program and language classifying illegal immigrants as felons.”
Kinky issued this press release supporting “the construction of 700 miles of security fence along the U.S.-Mexico border and which would make illegal immigration a felony,” but Kinky withdrew this press release.
But Kinky has repeatedly mentioned building a fence, and after saying that he would seek the Mexican president’s help, Kinky agreed with Bill O’Reilly that we cannot trust Mexico’s President to assist with immigration enforcement:
I guess if you don’t like Kinky’s immigration policy, just wait a while and it will flip the opposite direction.
The internal crosstabs at the latest SurveyUSA poll show that Kinky has the least support of all the candidates among likely Hispanic voters.
Could it be the newspaper interviews where Kinky promises to take “a harder line on immigration” than any of the other candidates and where Kinky says the Tejano protesters marching in favor of immigration reform are “half playing hooky”?
Could it be the other newspaper interviews where Kinky says “Mexico is not a poor country” and “I will divide the border into five jurisdictions, assigning one Mexican general to each and providing a trust fund for that general”?
Maybe it’s those interviews where Kinky says “all of these politicians are afraid of offending Hispanics … I want the border off the evening news until we get something resolved.” (Oddly, Kinky now says “I want the border on the nightly news every night” — just one more 180 degree flip flop on his immigration policy).
Obviously, Kinky is not “afraid of offending Hispanics” – or Black voters, for that matter.
The crosstabs at the SurveyUSA poll show that Kinky has the least support of all the candidates among Black voters. Kinky’s support among likely Black voters is down to 6% and down even lower to 4% among those racial minorities who did not list their race. Kinky’s paltry level of support is less than half the support among Black voters than even notoriously unpopular Governor Perry receives.
Why is Kinky’s support so low among likely Black voters?
What could be diminishing Kinky’s support in the Black community to less half the level of the widely disliked governor?
Could it be this video from Kinky’s appearance last November on CNBC’s “The Big Idea with Donny Deutsch” where Kinky explained his view that criminals should be punished by locking them in prison and making them “listen to a Negro talking to himself”?
Could that be why Kinky is so distrusted in the Black community?
Or perhaps Kinky is so unpopular among Black voters because Donny Deutsch asked if Kinky’s statement was possibly a little racist, and Kinky replied that “Negro is a charming word.”
If Kinky thinks “Negro is a charming word,” I can only guess what Kinky thinks about the phrase “tar baby.” The last time Kinky ran for public office, when he ran openly as a Republican, Kinky lost and he was bitter about it. Kinky said he was leaving “that worthless tar baby that is politics.†Just count that as one more broken promise.
No wonder Kinky is the least popular candidate among minority voters in Texas.
PLEASE, IF YOU KNOW ANYONE WHO CARES ABOUT FAIR IMMIGRATION POLICY OR RACE RELATIONS, WARN THEM AGAINST KINKY.
Thanks for the mention of Blue 19th. Every day makes it harder to compete – you need a ton of money to drive across the district, much less air commercials.
If Dems are going to build a successful party, they have to compete in districts like this. It HAS to be shown how badly they are selling out their own flesh and blood. THIS is why netroots is important. The Party doesn’t want to invest in its best people out here. It’s going to take people – and a long-term commitment to building strong, wide and deep.
Battle on, brother.
XT
Great write-up on CD 19. I couldn’t agree with XT any more. We have to fight the races with the good candidates.
Yeah, the district is red, but Neugebauer was 17% short of the votes Bush got in 2004. (That was Neug’s one and only general election.) I’ll eat my hat if Rick Perry gets 67% of the votes. I think this is a race which will suprise a lot of people if it gets the support it deserves.