Another Look At CD-17

The always enjoyable Anna Tinsley has a well-written look at the CD-17 race in the Star-Telegram today.
Tinsley catches a lot of the subtleties involved in the race this year, and I like how she phrases this:

Republicans are making another run, in what some say could be one of the costliest congressional races this year, at the House district represented by veteran Democrat Chet Edwards.

Some do, in fact, say this could be one of the costliest Congressional races this year. The unwritten part, however, is that rumor has it that the NRCC bank isn’t going to be broken for Van Taylor, unless it’s his own bank that he breaks.

I like this as well:

Now the GOP says it has the right candidate in Taylor to go up against Edwards, who last year was listed by a Washington newspaper as one of the most vulnerable congressional Democrats.

Taylor, who said he puts about 1,000 miles on his truck each week campaigning throughout the district, has picked up endorsements from groups such as the Free Enterprise Fund, the Texas Eagle Forum, the Texas Home School Coalition and Young Conservatives of Texas.

The GOP is going to say that because they can’t come out in public and say, “hey, this guy isn’t as good as he thought he was; come on, he couldn’t even handle an appearance on Hardball!”

And, to quote John Nance Garner again, those endorsements don’t add up to a warm pitcher of piss; most Republicans running in a general election will grab those up if they have a pulse.

It also doesn’t bode well for Taylor that a few of those endorsements that go to Republicans with a little more than a pulse (namely, candidates with a degree of clout), have gone to Edwards:

Edwards’ staff said Taylor lacks roots in the district. And Edwards has picked up support from groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Federation of Independent Businesses, which supported Wohlgemuth in 2004. He has also picked up endorsements from the Texas Farm Bureau and Texas Association of Businesses PAC.

We all know about the Farm Bureau in 2004. That TAB isn’t backing a Republican candidate is such a shock that I’m sure people who have heard it literally wet themselves.

Leave it, however, to Cal Jillson to make sense of it all for us. Even he says (in not so many words) that Van is toast (especially after his milquetoast performance on Hardball):

“2006 is not a good Republican year,” said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University. “The president is 15 points lower in his popularity rating, and the war and the domestic policy are both undercutting Republicans. It’s quite possible the Democrats will take back the U.S. House.”

Oh! And then Tinsley finally vindicates what I’ve been saying all along:

Both candidates are raising a lot of money for the race. So far, Edwards has raised about $2.1 million and Taylor about $1.7 million, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

It remains to be seen whether national Republicans, who say the district is one of their top 10 priorities, will put their money where their mouth is.

The National Republican Congressional Committee last month reserved more than $40 million in TV advertising time this fall, mostly for seats already held by the GOP. Republican officials say they plan to spend at least $1 million in an effort to unseat Edwards.

“Texas 17 is one of the very most competitive congressional races in the country,” said Jonathan Collegio, press secretary for the NRCC. “It’s a district President Bush won by 40 percent in the last election.

Finally, damn it, FINALLY someone in the MSM has picked up on what I’ve been saying all along: this race isn’t getting the NRCC cash!!!

BTW, anyone who is interested, note that nothing is said about any actual TV buys in the district—just that promised $1 million. For a few bucks (thanks to federal regulations), you can hop on down to your local TV station (and cable company that sells “local” ads for stations like the History Channel, MTV, CNN, etc.) in the district and ask them to provide you with a list of all the ad buys made by the NRCC and Taylor. It would seem somewhat strange, especially when it is expected that Perry and Strayhorn will be buying enough TV time to clog the market for downballot candidates, that the NRCC wouldn’t have already placed a buy on at least some TV ads.

[SOMEONE in this district, PLEASE get these records...I'm just dying to know...]

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