Wong Will Not Win & Here’s Why

The Houston Chronicle is actually doing an almost decent job of following the Wong-Cohen contest down in District 134.

In the article published Sunday, the Chronicle notes a few interesting things and calls the district, “the local equivalent of a presidential swing state.”

However, the Chron gives a lot of credit to the makeup of the district for the likelihood that it could flip: though still leaning slightly Republican, it still includes the more liberal Montrose area, plus places like West University Place, River Oaks and Bellaire where, while the residents may be typical R-leaning voters, they’re also highly intelligent people very well aware of the situation in Austin—not to mention Wong’s role in it.

I would say, however, that it’s not necessarily the makeup of the district that will cause it to flip. Rather, I think it’s the incumbent.

Keep in mind that, in the last election cycle, a couple of urban-centered districts flipped from Republican to Democrat, HD 117 in San Antonio in HD 149 in Harris County. And, in the last primary, HD 94 dumped right-winger Kent Grusendorf.

It’s my belief that it isn’t so much the demographics of all of these districts—117 and 149 are R-leaning districts—but rather the incumbents themselves that caused the flips.

Consider that in HD 117, Ken Mercer and in HD 149 Talmadge Heflin (and Grusendorf in 94) were all among the most far-right-wing members of the Lege and/or were Craddick Lieutenants in fact or deed (Mercer to a lesser extent, though he made up for lack of seniority with his radical beliefs). Wong fits right in with this group. Though she isn’t too senior, she is pretty far to the right and connected to the Craddick-era of corruption and unfair, one-sided rule in the House.

This year, I think there will be at least two heavily Craddick-tied House members who will go down to defeat: Wong and Gene Seaman in HD-32.  Both fit the Mercer/Heflin/Grusendorf profile.

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