Drive By Blogging By Burka

I want to briefly comment on some of Paul Burka’s attempted, drive-by, blogging on the Democrats’ worst-case scenario this cycle:

The Democrats’ worst-case scenario is that their hopes for gaining legislative seats will be wiped out by a tidal wave of Republican money in the closing weeks of the campaign. Unlike the GOP scenario, I believe this one is a sure thing. On issues like appraisal caps, school vouchers, and support for public education generally, Tom Craddick did not have a working majority last session. His speakership is safe for now, but Democratic gains could make life very unpleasant for him. Craddick has to protect incumbents Rs and take out some incumbent Ds. The money has already started to roll in–endangered GOP incumbent Toby Goodman, for instance, has received $25,000 from politically active homebuilder Bob Perry, $10,000 from Texans for Lawsuit Reform, and $10,000 from Craddick’s own Stars Over Texas PAC. It is widely anticipated that James Leininger, who reportedly spent $2.5 million in Republican primary races last spring to help conservative candidates defeat moderate GOP incumbents, will contribute millions more to beat targeted Democrats. This money is most likely to be used for mailings designed to stir up likely Republican voters. Don’t be surprised if the mailings include references to hot-potato plaintiffs lawyer John O’Quinn and his pledge to fund Chris Bell’s gubernatorial race singlehandedly. Hostility to trial lawyers is one issue on which Republicans are united.

Although you don’t have to qualify for MENSA to come up with Burka’s conclusions, he’s a bit off. There will be Leininger money, but it’s going to be targeted even more narrowly than it has in the past. Evidently Burka hasn’t noticed that Leininger has become far more radioactive than he has been in years past. Forays into Chuck Hopson’s district in East Texas (which is where I am hearing Leininger is going to drop some cash this cycle) will backfire. Similar forays will backfire in other parts of Texas, and Leininger’s going to have to be careful not to hurt Republicans more than he helps them.

As for Craddick remaining speaker, I don’t think there is any chance of that. It’s highly doubtful Democrats will gain a majority in the House,  but when Seaman, Wong and a few select others are picked off, the Republicans will realize that Craddick himself is radioactive to Texas Republicans and that it’s time for him to step down from the throne. There will be an overthrow within the GOP ranks.

Bookmark It