The Final Stretch: Texas House District 3

||Texas Houst District 3||Map||Demographics||Election Analysis||Mark Homer (D) [bio, $$, TV] vs. Kirby Hollingsworth (R)||Lamar, Delta, Hopkins, Franklin, Titus, Red River||

Given that Republican Kirby Hollingsworth (R-Mount Vernon) came within 214 votes of defeating Democrat Mark Homer in 2004, Republicans probably view this northeast Texas seat as their best chance for a pick-up this cycle.

They could not be more wrong. In addition to Hollingsworth’s support from 2004 eroding to such a point that even a former Republican county chairman in the district has given his endorsement to Mark Homer, Hollingsworth is being hit hard by folks in his district because rental home communities he owns are home to sex offenders, murderers, and drug busts.

A mobile home transporter and church song leader, Hollingsworth seems to have little of substance to offer House District 3 aside from the typical Republican rhetoric. With anti-Republican backlash existing even in northeast Texas, Hollingsworth will no doubt fall victim to a smaller vote count than he had in 2004, especially without George W. Bush at the top of the ballot. Plus, with many north east Texas Republicans expected to split their tickets between Texas Governor Rick Perry and Republican-turned-indepenent Carole Keeton Strayhorn, Hollingsworth will not be able to depend upon reliable straight-ticket Republican voters.

But, Watch Out: The GOP establishment in Texas has been gunning for two East Texas seats for years: those of Mark Homer and Chuck Hopson. While both seats will likely be Democratic holds, expect outside Republican special interests—including Dr. James Leininger and the state party—to pour in money, direct mail, and robo calls into this district. Since early 2005, informed sources have consistently advised that this district, along with Hopson’s, will be among Republicans’ biggest targets as they attempt to eleminate two of the last few remaining elected Democrats in northeast and east Texas. In spite of this, however, the highest level endorsement Hollingsworth can claim is from Agriculture Commissioner Susan Combs and State Senator Dr. Bob Deuell (R-Greenville).
Irrelevant Issues: Following a strategy similar to Larry Durrett in HD 7, Hollingsworth is doing his best to highlight Homer’s votes that can be distorted to say that the incumbent voted to make it easier for illegal immigrants to get a driver’s license and receive in-state tuition rates at Texas colleges and universities.

These issues are evidently the hallmark of the statewide Republican opposition strategy in Democratic-held state legislative seats this year, as nearly every candidate seems to be harping on the same points. The problem is that these points do not particularly resonate in a district where people are probably more concerned with migration from Oklahoma than immigration from Mexico.

Stronger Republican Leadership? Still, Hollingsworth’s campaign seems to be touting improved Republican leadership at the county level as a reason his run will be successful this time.

Pro Voucher, Pro Homeschool: Hollingsworth has the endorsement of Texas Homeschoolers, which is a major signal that, in spite of his statements to the contrary, he is a pro-voucher candidate. A major problem for Hollingsworth will be that his alliances with the far-right of his party put him in the company of groups percieved as being very anti-public education within the district.
Interesting Fact: For being a mostly rural district, Homer’s district has a surprisingly large number of major companies that employ a fair number of residents within various counties. Cambpell’s Soup, Earth Grains, Kimberly Clark, Ocean Spray and Pilgrim’s Pride all have facilities within Homer’s district.

Cash Advantage: Any late major surges by Hollingsworth will be made by third parties because, as of the last reporting period, he maintained only $37,560.26 compared to Homer’s $287,248.42.  As of the last reporting period, Homer’s spent $54,507.16 while Hollingsworth has spent $33,386. Homer has raised $188,850.56 compared to Hollingsworth’s $81,268.70.
Final Analysis: Hollingsworth will not unseat Homer. Also, it’s safe to conclude that there will not be nearly as many as the 48,436 votes cast in the race in 2004. It is expected that Homer will actually benefit from this because voter turnout in a gubernatorial election in East Texas is typically less than it is in a presidential election year. And, with more dedicated, educated voters turning out, they’ll likely select Homer, who is someone they know, have worked with, and can trust.

One factor to consider, however, is whether or not there will be significant “new” voter turnout in this area for Kinky Friedman. I would think Friedman supporters would be few and far between in this area, save any support Friedman may have at the two junior colleges in the district.

Hedging bets, I think it is also safe to say that votes for Strayhorn in this race would equate to votes for Homer—especially if traditional Republicans in pro-public education East Texas vote for Strayhorn because of education issues; Homer has a pro-public education record.

Last cycle, Homer won with 50.2 percent of the vote. This time, I would expect it to come down as follows:

HOMER: 52.25
HOLLINGSWORTH: 47.75