The Final Stretch: Texas Congressional District 28

||Texas Congressional District 28||Map||Henry Cuellar (D) [bio, $$, TV] vs. Frank Enriquez [bio, $$, TV] vs. Ron Avery (C)||Harris (part)||3rd Party TV||Frio, Guadalupe, Hidalgo (part), Jim Hogg, La Salle, McMullen, Starr, Webb (all), Wilson, Zapata.||

Texas Congressional District 28 is another Congressional District touched by redistricting.

With Laredo now united in one Congressional District, many pundits believe that Congressman Henry Cuellar is untouchable and can hold the seat until redistricting changes its bounds.

However, those pundits may not be familiar with the machine-politics of the Rio Grande Valley. One key factor in this district is the “Laredo vs. The Rest Of The Valley.” Many counties recently added to this district are disgruntled over not having a congressman from “their” area, and numerous candidates were floated as possibilities to challenge Cuellar before Frank Enriquez stepped up to the plate.

Though somewhat more progressive than Cuellar, Enriquez is not as liberal as Ciro Rodriguez. That isn’t a major consideration, however, given that the real issues in this particular race are now about regional representation more than any specific issues.

That hasn’t stopped Enriquez, however, from going for Cuellar’s jugular on various issues. And, Enriquez received the endorsement of Esquire magazine over Cuellar as well.

Final Analysis: What will happen in this district? It’s hard to say. Enriquez, like Cuellar, has support in Laredo. It’s not as much as Cuellar’s, however. But, Enriquez benefits from more support in the Eastern valley and new counties in the district than does Cuellar. Is this enough for to push Cuellar out? Probably not.

One thing of note is that if Cuellar and Enriquez both put together good GOTV plans, it will help Democrats (unless Cuellar does something like endorse Perry) up the ballot.

I would predict that the Constitution Party candidate will get 3-4 percent of the vote and that Cuellar will be able to avoid a runoff with 54-55 percent of the vote, with Enriquez gaining the rest.

Without a doubt, this race lacks the firepower of the Rodriguez v. Cuellar grudge match that we saw in the primary in the old CD 28.