14 Races To Target In ‘08

Taking a look at last night’s results, I’ve come up with a list of 14 races we should target in 2008:

Congressional District 10: Ted Ankrum held Mike McCaul to 55 percent. That’s not exactly a landslide and is barely a “clear mandate.” We should be able to perform better in this district with more money next time.

Congressional District 14: Although the numbers are not as rosy, I still maintain that with more financial backing, this is a race that can be snatched from Ron Paul.

Congressional District 24: In CD 24, an unknown polled nearly 40 percent against Congressman Kenny Ewell Marchant. Given that this district includes part of Dallas County, it’s ripe for targeting and using the Dallas-based portions as an attempt to flip it. This race will take two cycles to flip and wouldn’t filly flip until 2010, but if targeted properly both times, we should get 45-47 percent next time.

Congressional District 31: Clearly, John Carter is vunerable. Mary Beth Harrell could have had higher numbers with more money for messaging. I’d say target this race as Central Texas trends more purple and blue.

Congressional District 32: With far less money than Martin Frost, Will Pryor polled nearly as well as Frost did against Pete Sessions. With more anti-Republican sentiment likely next time and the Dallas County trending, we can retake this seat. It’s another I predict will take two cycles and cost millions, but I’d say it has to be targeted next time to be captured in 2010.

State Board of Education, District 9: As East Texas voters continue to reject the Leininger political ideal, Don McLeroy should be hit hard in 2008. An under-funded candidate who did only one mailer held him to under sixty percent in a massive district. With a significant financial contribution, and another candidate that is as qualified as Democrat Charlton was this time, this seat can be taken.

State Rep. District 8: By breaking 40 percent, Sharon Cade Davis showed that people in this district do want change. Unfortunatly, Davis didn’t have the financial resources to get out her message in a manner that would have alerted more voters to their ability to change. I do think this district can be won, but that it may take two more cycles. It must be captured by 2010 because that session of the legislature will handle redistricting.

State Rep. District 19: Again, another totally unknown Democrat, Paul Clayton, breaks 40 percent (42) against an incumbent like Mike Hamilton. It’s another district that may take two cycles to trend, but we’ve got to start now.

State Rep. District 52: Karen Felthauser nabbed 44 percent in this race and did better than a lot of pundits thought she would. In my mind, I had her pegged to get somewhere between 44-46 percent of the vote, so she performed about right in my estimation given that the Libertarian candidate over-performed getting 5.26 percent. My thinking is that when a Libertarian in Texas over performs beyond the typical 2-3 percent they are expected to get, they take votes from both sides. Anyway, Felthauser did a great job holding Krusse accountable, and down to 50.19. This district will flip next cycle.

State Rep. District 59: Again, an under-funded Democrat with less name recognition than many comes damned near 45 percent. This district is set to flip and dump out Republican Sid Miller.

State Rep. District 73: This district must be targeted simply because it is one of the “Leininger 5″ districts; Macias must be replaced.

State Rep. District 102: Harriet Miller gave Tony Goolsby a run for his money this time, helping hold him to under 52 percent. This district should be set to flip next cycle.

State Rep. District 106: Katy Hubener came within 300 votes of Kirk England in a nail-biter finish. This is better than I predicted after the special election earlier this year for this same seat. This district, another Dallas County district, will flip next time.

State Rep. District 114: Shinoda, underfunded and not terribly well-known, still finished respectably against Hartnett, who is not among the most right-wing of radical Republicans. In all likelihood, it will take two cycles and this won’t flip before 2010, but we need to target it again. After all, a moderate Democrat is better than a semi-moderate Republican.

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