Speaker Kolkhorst? Speaker Hartnett? Who Will Republicans Turn To If They Desire Change?

Following revalations that bribery and intimidation by registered lobbyists is present in the race for Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives, it’s clear that Speaker Tom Craddick (R-Midland) is clearly on the ropes and desparate to keep his 109 pledges intact.

Given that Craddick is looking more and more unpalatable to Republicans given that some of his top lieutenants have gone down in the past two cycles and considering that mere association with the speaker is poisonous, one must wonder who Republicans will look to when it comes time to actually elect a speaker.

Sources indicate there are at least two different minor movements afoot in the House right now geared toward replacing Craddick. One is reportedly centered around electing a more moderate speaker and the other is supposedly centered around electing a speaker who is just as right-wing as Craddick but not as despised by the general population.

This all begs the question, “Who are potential contenders?”

Well, here’s a rundown (and some serious speculation).

Will Hartnett, (R-Dallas), HD 114. Hartnett, you will recall, chaired the committee that handled the Heflin/Vo race challenge back in 2005 and won acclaim from parties on both sides of the aisle for the manner in which he conducted the investigation. He’s already chaired the House Judiciary Committee and is not generally seen as someone within Craddick’s “inner circle.” Hartnett is a Republican who, in a multi-candidate race (assuming Sinfronia Thompson does not get elected on the first or subsequent ballots), could poll votes from some Democrats because he is far less than other evils. Given that he is from Dallas, it can be assumed that in a Dallas vs. Houston battle for the speakership, Dallas-area Reps might rally around a Dallas choice in order to elect a speaker from their region. Hartnett would definately be a choice of the more moderate Republicans within the Texas House; he would not be the first choice of the far-right. While he would not be the first choice of many Democrats assuming a Democrat could be elected speaker, Hartnett has a better shot than many Republicans.

Lois W. Kolkhorst (R-Brenham), HD 13. Kolkhorst sits on two powerful committees: Appropriations and Calendars. Still, she’s not the first person to come to mind when you think of Craddick’s “inner circle.” She holds no major chairmanships at present, but did get some positive attention from the blogsphere during the recent Special Session when she presided over the House during some contentious debate. As far as positives for Republicans, they could garner some positives with the electorate with a female choice for Speaker of the Texas House assuming that voters view female Republican state reps as a “kinder, gentler” departure from Speaker Tom Craddick. From her brief time on the podium last session, it is clear Kolkhorst would rule with a firm hand. She’s also taken some interesting actions during her tenure like sticking up for students’ privacy when it comes to electronic monitoring, and she’s also taken some action to try and trim down the Trans Texas Corridor. Anyway, Kolkhorst would definately be a choice of more moderates and probably not of the far-right. Her interest group ratings on the abortion issue in particular, range from halfway decent to 100 percent in terms of being anti-choice, which may not make her a darling of the farthest right.

Brian McCall, (R-Plano), HD 66: McCall is a name we’ve heard floatd before in terms of a possibility to run against Craddick. Though he represents the tony Dallas suburb of Plano in Collin County, he’s been a name that we’ve heard floated around in prior sessions and there are a number of Democrats who reportedly believe he is an “acceptable” Republican alternative to Craddick.
Venturing out from this type of candidate, there is the possibility that Republicans—at least some Republicans— might want a candidate who has bucked the Craddick establishment on key issues, such as vouchers and who isn’t known as a major figure in the current failed Republican leadership.

In that case, there are several possibilities, two are below (and one is rather intreguing and probably one you be scratching your head about when reading).

Charlie Geren (R-Fort Worth), HD 99: Geren is a possibility if Republicans want someone who has actively bucked convention and has the battle scars to prove it. As one of the Leininger 5, Geren would be a good option if Republicans wanted a speaker that has bucked the previous leadership and is seen as more pro-public education than most Craddickats are percieved by the public.

Tommy Merritt (R-Longview), HD 7: Merritt, who represents Gregg and part of Smith County, seems like a real long shot, but remember that a speaker’s race is all about coalition building. And, believe it or not, East Texas is as big a possible coalition as any of the major metro areas like Dallas or Houston. And, given the conservative nature of many of East Texas’ Democrats, it’s not unreasonable for them to support a fellow East Texasn for Speaker. And, given that the last House Speaker from East Texas was William Rayford Price in 1972-73, if East Texans want another shot at a speakership they could build a bi-partisan coalition around Merritt, who has sparked the ire of ultra conservatives and was a Leininger 5 target. Though Merritt hasn’t chaired any major committees and isn’t known for any major legislation, he belongs on this list because, even if the rest of the world can’t see it, a coalition could be built around someone who is relatively unknown across the state but has strong regional support.