Which Texans Will Be Forced To Give Up Committee Seats In Congress?

We’re particularly interested—and anxious—to determine what members of the Texas Congressional Delegation will end up on what committees once all the dust settles in Washington, D.C.

To date, I’ve heard no word on what the majority-to-minority ratio will be for committees. It’s that ratio (combined with term-limits for Republicans on “A-list” committees), seniority, and other factors that will determine how the committees “shake out.”

One thing is clear: it appears a number of Republican Congressmen from Texas who lack seniority may find themselves off of plum committees.

Steve Southwell over at Who’s Playin’? has taken a good look at one of these members, Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Highland Village):

In the 109th Congress (2005 – 2006), our 26th Congressional District Congressman Michael Burgess served on the prestigious 57 member Energy and Commerce Committee.

Since the Democrats have taken control of the House, I’m going to take a guess at what’s going to happen here. First, according to this house website, Burgess is ranked 30th of 31 Republicans in seniority in this committee. There are currently 26 Democrats on the Committee. Since the committee will likely balance out to 30 Democrats and 29 Republicans (or possibly 31 to 26) Democrats will gain 5 to 6 seats.

First, lets see which Republicans are leaving the committee by virtue of not being re-elected:
- Vice Chairman Michael Bilirakis is out. His son Gus was elected to take his place, but this doesn’t give him a place on the committee.
- #19, Rep. Charles Bass was defeated by Democrat Paul Hodes.
- #26, Rep. Butch Otter, left office to become Governor of Idaho, and was replaced by Republican Freshman Bill Sali.

So, the three Republicans above have lost their seats. If the Republicans have lost at least 4 seats, then strictly by seniority ranking, then #31, Rep. Marsha Blackburn of TN should lose her seat. If the Republicans have lost at least 5 seats, then by seniority, #30, Rep. Michael Burgess will have to go too.

As of now, Democrats have 231 of 435 seats, meaning a 53.1% majority.
29 of 57 seats equals only 50.8%, whereas 30 of 57 is 52.7% – most closely mirroring the new majority makeup. Since 5 congressional seats still hang in the balance, if those seats went to Democrats, it would take the majority to 54.3%. If Democrats had a 31/26 ratio on this committee, it would roughly equal 54.4%.

Steve’s done a lot of the heavy lifting I’ve wanted to do on this subject but haven’t had the time to do.

Let’s take a look at other Texans who will likely drop off of committees.

This look is based only on seniority lists on the House committee webites.

First, on Judiciary, Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler) appears to be the least senior Republican. Even without looking at each Republican on that committee who lost elections, I don’t see a way he can maintain his seat—unless back-room dealing keeps him on the committee because of his judicial record and all the water he carried for the far-right in its attempts to destroy the Voting Rights Act this summer.

On Agriculture, Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock) may be safe, but I believe Mike Conaway (R-Midland) will probably end up dropping off. Agriculture would have been chaired by Charlie Stenholm were it not for Tom DeLay’s 2003 redistricting scheme.

Conaway could also find himself off the Armed Services Committee.

As for Appropriations, Congressmen John Culberson and John Carter (R-Round Rock) are both in danger of being offed.

Mike McCaul could lose his seat on Homeland Security as well as international relations along with Ted Poe (R-Humble).
Kevin Brady and Sam Johnson are the only Texans on Ways & Means, and Brady probably has enough seniority to hang on. Johnson should be fine, too, as he has high seniority.

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