80th Legislature: Making Vouchers More Palatable Makes It A More Dangerous Issue

You will recall that Capitol Annex has noted many times that, even though the Republican ranks have been diminished going into the 80th Legislature, vouchers still remain very much an “on the table” issue for Republicans.

James Leininger’s attempt to make vouchers more palatable for lawmakers (which we discussed last week and the Statesman addresses this morning) makes the issue an even more dangerous one for the coming session.

Clearly, there is no way Republicans will get enough support from within their own party to pass a “traditional” voucher bill that takes away funds from public schools.

However, Leininger’s “compromise” that would allow school districts to keep a portion of the money that would  be lost to voucher transfers combined with his new tactic of personal arm-twisting may well be enough to force enough Republican support to get a voucher bill through the House or, at least, create a very, very bloody battle.

Even though many anti-voucher Republicans going to the other side seems unlikely, it must be noted that no one wants to have Leininger’s millions thrown against them in a Republican Primary.

I believe there are two reasons for Leininger’s new strategy.

First of all, he has to realize that he has a limited window of opportunity to get vouchers passed as most project that the Legislature will shift in partisan balance back to Democrats before the end of the decade. And, even if it doesn’t, the growing number of minorities in Texas will create a very different map for the House after redistricting in 2012—one unlikely to produce a Republican majority unless it is unconstitutionally gerrymandered.

Second, with that limited window of opportunity and a very anti-voucher attitude in Austin these days (thanks in no small part to victories like those against Kent Grusendorf assisted by Texas Parent PAC), Leininger knows he must pull out all of the stops to pass voucher legislation this session. It makes the 80th Session key to the voucher movement.
The reason the 80th is key to Leininger and voucher advocates is also two-fold. First, it may be the last session with a Republican majority. Second, rejection of a more moderate voucher proposal will give Leininger and Republicans one heck of an issue to rile up their ultra-conservative, Right Wing, evangelical base going into 2008 in order that their losses may be minimized.

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