Hasta La Vista, Speaker?

As the day of gavel down for the 80th Legislature draws nearer, the speculation surrounding the speaker’s race intensifies.

Yesterday alone, half a dozen “rumors” crossed my desk: Talton is a stalking horse for McCall; Talton is only running to secure a chairmanship; McCall has more than enough votes to win; Craddick is gaining more pledges; deals are being cut; committee chairmanships are in the offing; Governor Perry is tacitly getting involved through third-party intermediaries in the Lege.

What can be believed? What is true? What is partly true? What is put out specifically as disinformation? Are the names of certain reps of both parties appearing in major daily newspaper stories as “supporters” of one candidate or the other as “signals” to voting blocks that it is time to fall in line?
Remember that, for the most part, the jockeying of the speaker’s race is done out of sight. Very rarely is there a lot that drifts to the surface and the media, and even more rare still is there a chance that this race won’t actually be wrapped up days before gavel down.

Something interesting that I’ve been thinking about lately is the actual composition that of the vote that it would take to defeat Craddick.

Consider that, given a lot of reps will hold their cards close to their chests and may not even sign a pledge card (I don’t believe there is any such requirement that you must pledge to a candidate), even though the race will be wrapped up before gavel down, some within the chamber may doubt the veracity of who has enough pledges, especially if pledge lists aren’t made public.

Given that it only will take 75 votes to elect a speaker (HD 29 is vacant), it is highly possible (if candidates count on voting blocs and reps who don’t sign pledge cards for anyone but promise support) we might have two people who think they have enough support to be speaker. Of course, if they actually have 75 pledge cards, that’s a different story…unless someone did pledge cards for both (must one withdraw a pledge if another candidate doesn’t publicize their pledges?

All food for thought…

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