Report: Texas Likely To Gain Two Congressional Seats Following Next Census

[Hat tip to Kuff's World for leading us in the direction of these stats].

As a result of significant population migration following Hurricane Katrina combined with ongoing population increases in Texas since the last census, Louisiana is poised to lose a seat in the House of Representatives and Texas is poised to gain one come in 2012 following the 2010 census.

The report, by Election Data Services, estimates the seat shifts based on 2006 population estimates of the U.S. Census Bureau.

Keep in mind, however, none of this is official until the actual census comes out. Texas could gain one seat, or as many as three depending upon what happens over the next three years before the decinnial count.

From the report:

Overall, the 2006 estimates show that seven congressional seats in 13 states have already changed at this point in the decade, if the U.S. House of Representatives was reapportioned with the updated numbers.Six states—Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, and Utah—would each gain a seat and Texas would gain two seats if the House was reapportioned with census population estimates for July 1, 2006, according to Election Data Services’ analysis. Seven states would lose seats—Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

The one thing the report didn’t address is where the seat would be. Of course, those estimates are released by county, so it wouldn’t be hard to tell once they come out.

My educated guesses are that there are several options, but all include a Houston-area seat I expect would be a Democratic pick-up, minority opportunity district:

Two new Harris County-Centric seats: Most of the Katrina evacuees are there, so it makes sense. At least one, possibly two, would be D seats, probably both minority-opportunity.
One Harris County-Centric seat & One Central Texas seat: Counties on the outskirts of Austin are growing fairly rapidly, some of the fastest growing in the state in fact. The Central Texas seat could well be a toss-up seat depending upon how the map is drawn, given that Hays county went blue.

One Harris County-Centric seat & One East Texas/Gulf Coast  Seat: East Texas is another area where there are some Katrina evacuees. Plus, there are gains on the Gulf Coast and rural East Texas because of people leaving the cities. And, as more of Dallas County becomes Democratic, I’d look for more seats to end up centered there rather than being merely anchored there to create minority opportunity districts where possible. A seat in deep East Texas would be Republican, a combo could be a toss-up.

One Harris County-Centric seat & One Valley seat: Immigration will play a role in this one. Remember that citizens aren’t the only ones counted in the census.

Of course, there are other factors to consider. One is how incarcerated persons will be enumerated. I believe there is a movement afoot (possibly litigation as well) to have them counted in areas from whence they came as opposed to where they are now jailed. This would dissipate minority populations in any areas with prisons (given the percentage of minorities in jails and prisons) and overall population.

Given that Texas will probably not have enough imates in 2010 to be equivelant to the size of a congressional district (and that they are scattered through the state), it probably won’t cause district lines to do massive shifting, although it would be interesting to see how it effects the lines around areas like Huntsville.

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