Revenue Estimate: $14.3 billion surplus

Amid all the additional excitement about the speaker’s race, Comptroller Susan Combs’ revenue estimate for the biennium kind of got lost in the shuffle.

She estimates there will be $82.5 billion available with a $14.3 billion surplus.

What’s scary is that it seems no one knows quite sure how to respond. After all, we have had nearly a decade of over-politicized revenue estimates that it seemed we never could trust.

So, I wonder if we can trust Combs’ estimate? I guess it is a fair question, given that the position is a partisan one. But, given that she hasn’t been on the job two weeks, I’d say the revenue estimate was probably prepared by the career staff of the Comptroller’s office and hopefully didn’t have much time to be politicized.

Anyway, one indication that Combs revenue estimate may be trustworthy is that she’s offered with a caveat.

Combs said that it’s about time for an economic downturn or slowdown, with the housing market and other indicators implying one is forthcoming.
Also, sales tax revenue is growingat a slower rate than expected.

So, of that $14 billion, I’d only expect that we’ll see the legislature legitimately put $5-6 billion in play and hold the rest over. With a slowdown on the horizon, spending all of the surplus simply won’t be prudent.

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