Three Or Four New Seats In Pipeline For Texas’ Congressional Delegation

We’ve previously speculated on the report that said Texas could end up with a pair of new congressional seats after the 2010 Census.

Charles Kuffner at Kuff’s World points us to this Houston Chronicle article that indicates it could be three or possibly even four new seats:

If population increase continues in similar fashion through the end of the decade, as expected, Texas will definitely add a third and possibly a fourth seat, said Clark Bensen, a Virginia analyst who counsels Republicans on redistricting strategy through his firm, Polidata.

Kimball Brace, who typically advises Democrats through his Election Data Services, also projects that Texas will pick up three seats during the once-a-decade rebalancing in the House. Texas gained two seats after the 2000 decennial count and now has 32 House members.

[...]

The Texas count has been complicated by the inflow of hundreds of thousands of Louisianans after Hurricane Katrina, Bensen said. Louisiana already was on track to lose a House seat even before Katrina, and it remains unclear whether the Katrina evacuees will still be in Texas as of 2010, he said.

I previously mentioned that the influx of evacuees would have a significant impact on the population. I’m also now thinking that an increase in the immigrant population (remember, individuals in the nation who aren’t here legally are also counted) will have a big impact on this.

Also, I am curious as to how much better the census will do this time about documenting the homeless. That will also have an impact.

And, as I’ve mentioned before, how the census counts the incarcerated will have an impact. There has been a lot of discussion on this issue (including a NYTimes op-ed), and there has been litigation on the subject. There is even a website set up to address these concerns which is quite interesting.

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