Retirees Flock To Texas: What Does This Mean For Social Services, Tax Base, Census Numbers?

If you live anywhere in East Texas, you can’t turn around these days without hearing talk of municipalities wanting to attract more retirees. To wit:

East Texas is famously dense with pine forests and barbecue joints. With any luck, it soon may be known for attracting a whole bunch of older folks and their money.
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In a region flush with cheap homes and lush rural landscapes but short on economic growth, East Texas leaders are hatching a plan: Sway the nation’s aging baby boomers to spend their nest eggs here and make this unique corner of the state as synonymous with retirement as Florida or Arizona.

While the “spend their nest egg” part sounds like an economic boon to the region and the state, there is far more to consider.

First off, while the fact that these retirees are buying up a lot of homes and property may hike property values meaning more money in the coffers of local government, it also means something else. First off, it means that home ownership in some of these communities will become more out of reach for middle and lower-middle class families because the prices of good homes is out of their reach. Second, as people live longer, and given that the property taxes of persons over 65 are frozen, it will ultimately mean less—not more—money in the coffers of local government meaning those communities have to turn to the ultra-regressive sales tax to raise additional revenues, since cities are allowed to exceed the state sales tax by a certain percent.

We’ve also got to consider social services. While many of these retirees may have private insurance if they afford to move here, it still means that other social services will be stretched. Eventually, lower-level social programs like nutrition programs for the elderly will see more clients. In addition, as this population grows even older, we’ll need more nursing homes, especially given that these retirees are likely moving far from their children and other relatives and may be less likely to have nearby family that can take care of them in a home setting.

Finally, what about census numbers? Are retirees moving here (or will they be moving here) in great enough numbers to swell the population and combine with regular population growth and Katrina evacuees to result in a third or possibly fourth Congressional district for Texas following the 2010 Census?

While that may mean more political clout for Texas, does that cost come at a greater cost when it comes to funding for local governments, housing costs and social services?

Food for thought.