It came as a surprise to many when Rep. Fred Hill (R-Richardson) announced his retirement last week. And, although there are already rumblings about Republicans clamoring for their party’s nomination, a flip of this district, while not impossible, isn’t a total impossibility.
First, let’s look at Hill’s numbers last time out:
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 112 *Hill R 21,068 77.9% 77.9% Moseley L 5,961 22.1% 22.1%
Twenty-two percent for a Libertarian is pretty high performance in a race without a Democrat, I believe. It shows a significant dissatisfaction with the current leadership, at least.
Consider this, as well: most down-ballot judicial candidates in Dallas County polled in the 39-40 percent range in Hill’s district, which isn’t totally awful (the Hill district numbers are the first set of percentages reading left to right):
44TH DISTRICT JUDGE *Kelton R 19,512 60.9% 48.4% Cortez D 12,521 39.1% 51.6% 68TH DISTRICT JUDGE *Stokes R 19,215 60.0% 47.1% Hoffman D 12,804 40.0% 52.9% 101ST DISTRICT JUDGE *Patterson R 19,471 60.9% 48.0% Lowy D 12,515 39.1% 52.0% 116TH DISTRICT JUDGE *Frost R 19,914 62.0% 49.3% Priddy D 12,226 38.0% 50.7% 160TH DISTRICT JUDGE Thomas R 19,258 60.1% 47.4% Jordan D 12,762 39.9% 52.6% 191ST DISTRICT JUDGE *Haynes R 19,556 61.0% 48.2% Slaughter D 12,477 39.0% 51.8% 192ND DISTRICT JUDGE Estes R 19,027 59.3% 46.5% Smith D 13,048 40.7% 53.5% 193RD DISTRICT JUDGE *Evans R 19,255 60.3% 47.5% Ginsberg D 12,677 39.7% 52.5% 194TH DISTRICT JUDGE *Miller R 19,675 61.7% 48.6% White D 12,235 38.3% 51.4% 195TH DISTRICT JUDGE Jones R 19,480 60.9% 48.3% Tinsley D 12,482 39.1% 51.7% 204TH DISTRICT JUDGE *Nancarrow R 19,010 59.4% 46.7% Levario D 12,976 40.6% 53.3% 254TH DISTRICT JUDGE *Coen R 19,425 60.9% 47.9% Hanschen D 12,453 39.1% 52.1% 255TH DISTRICT JUDGE *Fowler R 18,710 59.2% 46.2% Hockett D 12,896 40.8% 53.8% 256TH DISTRICT JUDGE *Green R 19,436 61.6% 48.9% Lopez D 12,102 38.4% 51.1% 265TH DISTRICT JUDGE *Dean R 18,843 59.9% 47.1% Stoltz D 12,630 40.1% 52.9% 282ND DISTRICT JUDGE *Greene R 19,417 61.6% 48.9% Chatham D 12,104 38.4% 51.1% 283RD DISTRICT JUDGE Gregory R 19,372 61.6% 48.4% Magnis D 12,058 38.4% 51.6% 292ND DISTRICT JUDGE *Wade R 19,314 60.8% 48.5% Mitchell D 12,436 39.2% 51.5% 298TH DISTRICT JUDGE Willcutts R 18,655 59.3% 46.2% Tobolowsky D 12,809 40.7% 53.8% 301ST DISTRICT JUDGE *Rankin R 19,214 61.0% 48.2% Cherry D 12,310 39.0% 51.8% 302ND DISTRICT JUDGE *Harris R 18,818 60.0% 47.1% Callahan D 12,542 40.0% 52.9% 303RD DISTRICT JUDGE Shehan R 18,456 58.8% 45.8% *Garcia D 12,952 41.2% 54.2% 304TH DISTRICT JUDGE *Sholden R 19,193 61.2% 47.6% Mazur D 12,193 38.8% 52.4% 363RD DISTRICT JUDGE *Johnson R 18,927 60.0% 48.5% Holmes D 12,607 40.0% 51.5% DALLAS CO. CRIM. DIST. COURT NO.1 *Warder R 18,747 59.6% 47.0% Burns D 12,726 40.4% 53.0% DALLAS CO. CRIM. DIST. COURT NO.5 *Alvarez R 18,635 59.1% 47.2% Thompson D 12,905 40.9% 52.8%
But, is the district actually primed to flip? Turnout in the district was about 48 percent, which was higher than turnout countywide in Dallas. And, the minority populations in the district, while not off-the-charts, total over 50,000 when you add in the “other” to the African American and Hispanic numbers:
--------------------- POPULATION --------------------- TOTAL ANGLO BLACK HISP B+H OTHER DISTRICT 112 143,894 92,466 12,647 19,338 31,726 19,702 Dallas (PART) 143,894 92,466 12,647 19,338 31,726 19,702
Clearly, it’s way too early to say that the district is actually primed to flip, but it certainly isn’t a district Democrats should write-off without another thought. Even if it can’t flip in 2008, some good on-the-ground work could lead to serious inroads in 2010.
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