Republicans Voting In The Democratic Primary For Obama Redux

Via the Houston Chronicle, there is some hard evidence related to the “GOP voters in the D Primary for Obama” rumors and/or trends that we, Charles Kuffner, and Muse have addressed.

It turns out, in fact, there may be some foundation for these worries:

According to polling, as well as anecdotal evidence, an unusually large number of Republicans and independents may cast their votes in the Democratic contest next week, a prospect that could tip the outcome of what polls show is now a tight race. Such defections could also affect the many local and state legislative primaries around the state.

An American Research Group poll released Monday showed Obama leading Clinton, 71 percent to 25 percent, among Texas independents and Republicans who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary.

There is scattered evidence across the state that some Republicans may be voting Democratic, at least for a day. In one precinct in the suburban Houston neighborhood of Kingwood, where 82 percent of voters cast ballots for President Bush in 2004, Democrats were outvoting Republicans 4-to-1 last week in early voting.

Independents in our primary I’m fine with; truly converted Republicans in our primary I’m fine with. I’m not fine with a bunch of Texas Republicans who, possibly encouraged by people within their own party–or opportunistic Obama supporters who see an inroad to defeat Hillary Clinton in a red state where the primary vote actually matters–voting in our primary.

I doubt this is significant enough for people to call for a “closed” primary or a stronger system of party identification for Texas voters. But, if Clinton loses and D turnout looks like it was bolstered by wayward R’s coming to our primary to cast “hater” votes against Clinton, you can bet you’ll see some desire to change our present system in the Texas Legislature in 2009. Of course, that will go over with many legislators like a pregnant lady on a pole vault because many Democrats and certainly some Republicans would fight a “closed” primary tooth and nail believing it would disadvantage legislators and elected officials in the middle who run with a party label but rely heavily on independent voters. Why? Because it would actually formalize (heaven forbid!) party structure in Texas and their argument would be it would further “polarize” the situation for Democrats and Republicans in marginal districts.

Of course, this is probably all a moot point, since I expect it will be another couple of decades (barring a legislative move-up of our primary date) before Texas matters again in a Presidential primary (except, perhaps, for Republicans in four years).

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