After March 4, How Quiet Will November Be?

Last week, we posed the question of whether or not national Democrats would be doing much in Texas after the primary.

Now, the San Antonio Express-News jumps on that bandwagon:

The national Democratic ticket has all but turned its back on Texas in almost every presidential general election since Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976. The Electoral College math was that Democrats could win without Texas, so why spend money in a very large state?

Neither Clinton nor Obama has said whether anything will be different this time.

Clinton, in an interview with Texas Monthly, already appeared to be writing Texas off in the fall: “I’d love to carry Texas, but it’s usually not in the electoral calculation for the Democratic nominee.”

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe also said it is too early to know whether the Illinois senator’s campaign will make a concerted effort in Texas in the general election.

Of course, Texas very well could be in the electoral calculation for the Democratic nominee as Dallas has gone blue and Harris County is steadily trending that direction. Of course, there is a catch-22 to that: you have to spend money to put Texas in play.

Whomever the Democratic nominee is should be able to look at the numbers of Democrats who voted in Texas in the primary and make a pretty quick determination that if all those voters–plus more–are energized by an active election campaign it will cause a couple of things to happen:

1.) It will force the Republican nominee to divert resources from other key battleground states to Texas, creating a battle royal for our hefty electoral vote count; given the bluing trend in urban areas, with money for a ground game, Republicans could–with some work–actually be forced to cede Texas’ electoral votes. To divert resources to Texas–a state the GOP wouldn’t think would be in play if Democrats plan to put it in play–the GOP will have to divert resources from another battleground state meaning Democrats will have another pick-up if they play their cards right.

2.) The Democratic nominee will be in a better position to earn Texas’ electoral votes–a pretty big prize–and in turn be closer to the nomination.

After a look at March 4 turnout, we’ll be in a better position to determine exactly how much Texas could be in play. But, it is pretty clear that, with money and tremendous dissatisfaction toward Republicans, it wouldn’t take much of a nudge to make Texas truly a competitive battleground in November.

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