SD 17: Chris Bell Takes A Serious Look

Via the Statesman, we hear more about Chris Bell’s potential bid for the senate seat soon to be vacated by Sen. Kyle Janek (R-Houston), who will step down next month:

One thing I was wondering about–Bell’s campaign debt from his gubernatorial run–was put to rest in the Statesman piece:

A potentially significant wrinkle: Bell has resolved nearly $42,000 in outstanding bank loans he reported on his gubernatorial campaign committee finance report filed in January.

“We negotiated a settlement of the amount of interest owing with the bank,” Bell said. “We will pay $26,000 as full and final settlement of the amount owing and that will be the end of it.” The money will be paid from his gubernatorial campaign kitty.

Bell is probably the most serious Democratic contender at this point. Though the Statesman story mentions State Rep. Scott Hochberg (D-Houston), sources tell Capitol Annex that Hochberg has made up his mind not to seek the seat.

Two Republicans have formally announced their intentions to seek the seat: Grant Harpold, a precinct chair and Houston attorney and Austen Furse, a Houston money manager. State Rep. Charlie Howard (R-Sugar Land) and former Harris County GOP Chair Gary Polland are reportedly considering the race.

In terms of the numbers in the district, the Statesman offers this tidbit:

If Bell seeks the seat, he’ll enter knowing Perry won 39 percent of the district vote in 2002, with Bell drawing 30 percent and independents Carole Keeton Strayhorn and Kinky Friedman trailing.

In the closest non-judicial statewide race in the Senate district, Elizabeth Ames Jones won her race for the Texas Railroad Commission with 56.5 percent of the vote. Democrat Dale Henry took 43.5 percent.

Certainly, nobody can be wild about those numbers. However, one advantage does exist in that, this being a special election with multiple candidates, even if the election is held on the general election day in November, a runoff is almost certain. And, we can expect Bell, if he is the Democrat in the race, to be in the runoff. With post-general election day runoffs being low-turnout affairs it’s all about GOTV, and, judging by the last several similar elections (Dan Barrett, Ciro Rodriguez), a Democrat’s best shot may be in the special election runoff.

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