HOT HOUSE RACE: Texas House District 17 (TOSS UP; SLIGHT ADVANTAGE R)

Texas House District 17: Donnie Dipple (D-LaGrange) v. Tim Kleinschmidt (R-Lexington). Open Seat; TOSS UP (Slight Advantage R). In this district, Dipple and Kleinschmidt will be fighting to take over from State Rep. Robby Cook, who is retiring after more than a decade in the Texas House of Representatives. Kleinschmidt is making his second run for the position. Kleinschmidt, who is most remembered for his campaign’s fondness for talking cows, is still no easy roll-over. Cook beat him by a mere one percent in 2006.

HD 17, which includes Burleson, Lee, Bastrop, Fayette, and Colorado Counties, is largely rural. The majority of voters are located in Bastrop County.

More so than perhaps in any district on this list, the results of this race could well hinge upon how the presidential race breaks down in the district. One thing that will be necessary for Dipple is to not loose too many pro-Clinton voters in the District to McCain. If he does, he should hope they aren’t voting straight Republican tickets. Clinton defeated Obama in the March primary in every county in the district, with Obama coming close to Clinton only in Bastrop County (49.49 Clinton/48.04 Obama). While there wre far less voters in Burleson County (where Clinton carried more than 60 percent of Democratic Primary voters), Colorado (57 percent for Clinton),  Fayette (55 percent for Clinton) and Lee (52 percent for Clinton), Dipple can’t afford to lose a single vote from the Democratic Primary.

This race is a top target for both Republicans and Democrats. Before election day, expect to see a lot of third-party expenditures in the race on both sides.

WHAT WILL TILT IT: A large turnout in the presidential race will tilt the race one way or the other. If Obama is able to stay above 40 percent, Dipple has an advantage. A massive turnout specifically against Obama in the district could doom him and give Kleinschmidt an advantage. Toward that end, significant Republican expenditures geared to tie Dipple to the up-ticket Democratic races would make this district very tough.

WHAT THE DEMOCRAT HAS TO DO TO WIN: Dipple’s got to turn out every Democratic vote in the district. He’s also got to turnout the “swing” voters that helped propel downballot races like Bill Moody’s into the high 40s in 2006. In addition, Dipple must work hard to reach out to new voters excited by this year’s primary process–especially those voters with no previous primary voting history as they are most likely to vote Democratic.

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