HOT HOUSE RACE: Texas House District 32 (LEAN DEMOCRATIC)

Texas House District 32: State Rep. Juan Garcia (D-Corpus Christi) v. Todd Hunter (R-Corpus Christi); Incumbent Protection; LEAN DEMOCRATIC. In this district, freshman State Rep. Juan Garcia (D-Corpus Christi), who defeated incumbent Gene Seaman (R-Corpus Christi) in 2006 is on the defensive against lobbyist and former State Rep. Todd Hunter (who served as a Democrat but is now a Republican).

Garcia holds the advantage in the district, and not just by virtue of incumbency. While Hunter will have no shortage of cash for the contest, he also has the most baggage by virtue of the fact that he is a longtime lobbyist. When it comes to key issues of importance to the district, such as windstorm insurance, Garcia has a distinct advantage–in no small part, on this particular issue, because of Hunter’s record as a lobbyist.

As with many other districts impacted by Hurricane Ike, the disaster has changed the dynamic in the race. While the dynamics tend not to favor the incumbent in other hot races like House District 129, Garcia takes the advantage here because of his legislative advocacy relating to windstorm insurance and legislation to make the state’s insurance commissioner a statewide elected official. Too, Garcia’s work on ethics issues and his attempts to decrease lobbyist influence create a stark contrast between him and Hunter.

While Republicans will likely make some attempts to use wedge issues such as tort reform and some social issues as they did in their attempts to protect Seaman in 2006, this district will be voting this year with an eye on issues that are closer to home, such as windstorm insurance.

Hunter is running an aggressive campaign, but it has serious problems. One is exploiting his close ties to lobbyist and former Democratic legislator Hugo Berlanga. Another is Hunter’s refusal to release his income tax records, and then his campaign’s idiotic attempts to impugn Garcia’s military record. Number one, this is a very pro-military district, and Hunter’s campaign’s actions simply won’t fly given Garcia’s military record. Second, nobody likes a politician who won’t disclose his income–it makes him look like he has something to hide.

This race is a top-level target for Republicans who are forced to play as much offense as defense in their attempts to both hold onto a minority in the House and keep Tom Craddick (R-Midland) as speaker. This seat is key to both.

WHAT THE DEMOCRAT HAS TO DO TO WIN: Stay with the issues. Garcia has to continue to campaign on the issues because his views on the issues of importance to the district resonate with voters more than Hunter’s stances. Garcia’s campaign also has to avoid any major mistakes, which should be easy given that Garcia isn’t a candidate prone to gaffes or major missteps. While the presidential turnout in this race won’t be as critical as it is in some districts, Garcia still can’t afford a last-minute voter backlash against Obama. While that seems unlikely, anything could happen on the national scale, and Garcia doesn’t need newly-energized straight-ticket Republicans coming out of the woodwork.

WHAT WILL TILT IT: Money, Money, Money. Money is media, and media is key to getting the message out to voters. Garcia’s got to have not only the money to get his message out, but to get out the necessary information about his opponent with cash to spare to mount a hard defense to any last-minute or third-party attacks launched by Hunter or on his behalf by PACs. Also, Garca can’t do enough to create as stark a contrast as possible between himself and Hunter. With Hunter already touting his past experience as a legislator–and lobbyist–as reasons that he would have an advantage in the Legislature over Garcia, Garcia must be able to define Hunter as out of touch with the district and create an effective contrast between himself and his opponent.

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