HOT HOUSE RACE: Texas House District 52 (LEAN DEMOCRATIC)

Texas House District 52: Diane Maldonado (D-Round Rock) v. Bryan Daniel (R-Round Rock), open seat, LEAN DEMOCRATIC. In 2006, an under-funded Karen Feltuhauser (D-Round Rock) came within a hair of defeating powerful incumbent State Rep. Mike Krusee (R-Taylor), who announced last November he wouldn’t seek re-election.

It is a given that Maldonado would have a much easier ride if she was opposing Krusee instead of Daniel, who was hand-picked by the GOP machine in Williamson County to be Krusee’s successor. Krusee’s baggage was mammoth, and he was perhaps the most unpopular state representative among his own constituents in the entire Texas Legislature.

Unfortunately for Maldonado, she doesn’t get to face Krusee (who now has a drunk driving arrest to add to his baggage). Fortunatly for Moldonado, however, Daniel is cut from the same cloth as the controverisial Krusee in a district that is ripe for change and in which Democrats have consistently increased their numbers and influence since 2000.

Maldonado has the advantage here. Daniel was forced to wade through a bruising and costly Republican primary. Maldonado had no such contest and was able to amass a significant campaign warchest. However, with Republicans depending upon this seat to maintain a majority in the House, expect Daniel to have every dollar he could possibly need. In fact, we predict Daniel will actually outspend Maldonado, and that third-party expenditures on his behalf will dwarf those done on Maldonado’s behalf because this is a true swing district in every sense of the term. Largely suburban and exurban, with more and more Austinites moving into Williamson County over the last eight years, the demographics here have truly changed. It appears, over the last several election cycles, that these changes have favored Democrats in down-ballot races.

We rate this district as LEAN DEMOCRATIC for several reasons. First of all, Maldonado has the advantage of having already been before voters on the ballot in a non-partisan election as a Round Rock ISD board of trustees member. Second, the Trans-Texas Corridor and toll roads remain a key defining issue in politics at all levels in this particular district. While Krusee was particularly polarizing on this issue, so are Republicans. As much as Republicans are now running from Rick Perry’s TTC, voters still seem to see the connection and worry that Republicans who say one thing about the TTC to get elected may vote differently once in Austin.

Too, Daniel is essentially the “political establishment.” He was a former staffer for former Congressman Larry Combest (R-Lubbock) (his wife worked for former Congressman Henry Bonilla (R-San Antonio), and was appointed by President Bush as the Texas state director for rural development for the USDA. Also, he works–as a vice president no less–for an insurance company. If there is one thing voters don’t like–especially after they’ve heard a few Hurricane Ike horror stories–it is insurance executives.

There is no question the Republicans will stop at nothing to hold this seat. We fully expect Maldonado to be outspent, and we fully expect hundreds of thousands to be spent in third-party expenditures against her. However, the district’s demographics and previous voting history seems to show it favors a change. Maldonado represents that change, and there is no amount of money that will hold a seat when the moment for change finally dawns. Here, it finally has.

WHAT THE DEMOCRAT HAS TO DO TO WIN. Maldonado needs to paint Daniel as part of the big-government establishment. She should exploit his ties to the corrupt and influence-peddling insurance industry, and tie the Republican Party to toll roads at every opportunity. Maldonado needs to highlight the fact that Daniel represents no “change” from Mike Krusee, and that if voters desire change, Daniel isn’t who they should be voting for. In addition, Maldonado has to run a field program that is aggressive. A win for Maldonado will depend on getting her message out to all voters which means that door-to-door and microtargeting must accompany an aggressive paid and earned media campaign. Maldonado also has to make sure that she minimizes the influence of Daniel’s ties to the ag community. While the district’s “rural” population was in the single-digits in 2000 (8.5 percent), there are jobs and other economic factors tied to the district’s rural population. Because of Daniel’s work with the USDA, he has support from many agribusiness groups. Maldonado needs to make sure that she does her best to point out to rural voters that she is their best bet when it comes to protecting the family farm (marganilizing the influence of groups like the Farm Bureau would be a good tactic).

WHAT WILL TILT IT: Again, money will play a powerful role in this race. However, the district is to a point where, we believe, so long as Maldonado has the money it will take to get her message out, she can win. That’s no guarantee, but issues and not money will turn this race because both candidates will have at least the minimum resources to mount the necessary media campaigns. One thing that could tilt the race would be if an issue–on either side–cropped up before election day that truly resonated with voters. A major misstep by either candidate or their campaigns at this stage of the race would be a likely tipping point. Too, Maldonado needs to make sure that she’ll be able to effectively combat Daniel on immigration. Daniel will no doubt use that as a key campaign point as he did in the primary, and Maldonado needs to be ready for that. While a failure by Maldonado’s campaign to respond properly to Daniel’s attempts to frame the debate on the immigration (and possibly other) issues could be the tipping point, how Daniel elects to frame some of these issues could very well actually tip the race in Maldonado’s favor.

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