HOT HOUSE RACES: Texas Houe District 78 (LEAN DEMOCRATIC)

Texas House District 78: Joe Moody (D-El Paso) v. Dee Margo (R-El Paso), open seat, LEAN DEMOCRATIC. In the March Primary, Dee Margo defeated moderate Republican Pat Haggerty (R-El Paso) to create this open seat. Margo, of course, carpetbagged into the district so his maid wouldn’t have to walk up stairs after an embarassing defeat at the hands of State Sen. Elliot Shapleigh (D-El Paso) in 2006. An unabashed pro-Craddick Republican, a Margo victory in this race would mean that three house seats in El Paso county are in the hands of Craddick loyalists: TX HD 77, which will be in the hands of “Craddick D”Marisa Marquez (D-El Paso) come January, and TX HD 76 which is in the hands of “Craddick D” Norma Chavez (D-El Paso). Thus, who wins this seat could determine whether or no voters across El Paso County get screwed significantly in the 81st Legislative Session. A Margo win here, and the three sections of El Paso County represented by Craddick-loyalists will be at a serious disadvantage whether or not Tom Craddick remains as speaker. If Craddick remains as speaker, count on these three to vote lock-step with Craddick and not in favor of their districts. If Craddick isn’t the speaker, then these three Craddick loyalists will find themselves proverbially exiled to the House Cloak Room and their districts not getting much worthwhile.

This district is a must-win for Republicans and House Speaker Tom Craddick. The GOP “big guns” have already been dispatched to the District–such as Texas AG Greg Abbott. And, there are the juicy and persistent rumors that Margo got to ride with Karl Rove when he appeared in El Paso for a fund-raiser for John Cornyn.

Moody has some major advantages. One is that voter turnout in El Paso spikes significantly every four years when it is time to elect a new president. Another is that, typically, that turnout favors Democrats (although it favored John Kerry less in 2004 than it favored Al Gore in 2000). So long as the spike in voter turnout continues, and Obama doesn’t trend far below the numbers Kerry posted in El Pasp in 2004, Moody has a chance.

However, there are some things that worry us about this district. For one, Margo won HD 78 in his race against Sen. Elliot Shapleigh in 2006–by 53 percent. But, Moody’s own father, an El Paso judge, polled 59.3 percent in the district during his 2006 run for Texas Supreme Court.

We rate the district as LEAN DEMOCRAT for a couple of reasons. Number one, we believe Margo’s 2006 run, his firmly announced intentions against running in 2008, his flip-flop, his ties to House Speaker Tom Craddick, and the nasty tone of the GOP primary have poisioned his candidacy. Too, the fact that Margo is a carpetbagger will also work to Moody’s advantage. While he lived in the Senate District when he posted good numbers in HD 78 in 2006, he didn’t live in House District 78, and that kind of thing won’t go unnoticed by voters who want real, local representation.

Too, we believe that Moody has the resources in place to mount a winning campaign–from a field program to paid media. While Moody needs more money to mount a larger media campaign, it will be tough for him to go tit-for-tat with Margo, who has been up on the air with television ads for about a week. There is no question Margo will outspend Moody. But, this is El Paso, and races like this are typically won on the ground with field operations before they are won on the television set or in the mailbox.

Too, Margo seems willing to stoop to any length to win the race. His attacks on an old blog operated by Joe Moody are, perhaps, among the dumbest attacks launched by any state representative this election cycle. Too, when it comes to the issues, Moody has legs on which to stand. Margo has flip-flopped on tax issues, and has released a “health care plan,” that is essentially a joke on paper.

While Margo will have no shortage of third-party money coming in from all sides, that actually could help hasten his second major loss in as many years. In 2006, Margo benefitted from political action committees that got their funding from school voucher advocate Dr. James Leininger. These days, Leininger doesn’t seem to play well in any part of the state, so Margo finding himself tied to Leininger-supported PACs would likely be a negative.

WHAT THE DEMOCRAT HAS TO DO TO WIN: Number one, Moody can’t make any mistakes. Since he’s a younger, first-time candidate, he’s got to be especially careful. Although Moody is bright and talented, a first time candidate can always make mistakes that will doom the campaign. Moody’s got to make sure he doesn’t make one. Number two, Moody has to get more money in to help fund media buys. While the race will be won on the ground, voters in the district seeing Dee Margo ads completely unanswered for long periods of time every time they turn on their television sets would be difficult to overcome. Moody also has to tie Margo hook, line, and sinker to Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick and the failed policies of his reign. Moody must create an effective contrast between himself and Margo on important to the district and make sure Craddick fits into that picture–right alongside Margo.

WHAT WILL TILT IT: Outright election stealing through voter harassment, intimidation, and elections misconduct. If Republicans believe they won’t win the election outright, they’ll steal it. But, they won’t steal it the old-fashioned way with repeaters and trucked-in votes (thanks, Ballot Box 13). They’ll steal it through voter harassment and intimidation and elections misconduct in polling places. Believe it or not, Republicans this year have trained their foot-soldiers in these methods. And, HD 78 is one of the top house districts in Texas where you can expect to hear reports of voter harassment within hours of the polls opening up on election day. Expect to hear horror stories about fliers distributed through neighborhoods announcing false polling place changes and bizarre things like warrant and family citizenship checks at polling places. Expect a lot of controversy about what constitutes proper identification under the election code if someone doesn’t have their voter registration card on election day. Moody’s going to have to have at least one poll watcher at every polling place and a team of lawyers at the ready. Of course (as we’ll note in a post later this week), Moody’s district isn’t the only one we hear Republicans are targeting this way, but it will be among the most prominent. And, if the final result is within one or two hundred votes, expect Margo’s forces to contest the election all the way to the floor of the Texas House of Representatives.

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