HOT HOUSE RACES: Texas House District 129 (LEAN DEMOCRATIC)

Texas House District 129: Sherrie Matula (D-Houston) v. Rep. John Davis (R-Clear Lake); challenge seat; LEAN DEMOCRATIC. We’ve been talking about the merits of this race for over a year. John Davis is the most endangered Republican in the Texas House of Representatives. And, when Ike hit his district, he was AWOL, and then spammed out a fundraising invite to an Austin fundraiser, proving he places a greater value on campaign dollars than his constituents. More so than perhaps any other race on this list, Hurricane Ike has created a firestorm concerning insurance issues that could spell Davis’ ultimate demise, given that he is significantly beholden to that industry.

Too, Matula has, perhaps, run the best campaign in the entire state, in spite of the fact that much of the political establishment didn’t catch onto this fact for a while. Her field program has been unparalleled in any house race in Harris County, and her fundraising numbers have previously surpassed incumbent John Davis.

In this race, Matula has the fortunate circumstance of being a name voters know and actually trust. She’s a former Clear Creek ISD trustee, and has been a science educator for decades. She’s also got the advantage of being a not unknown commodity among Austin insiders because of her work on behalf of teachers’ associations and their legislative programs at the Capitol.

Too, Matula is fortunate in that John Davis has enough baggage and negative votes that he needs four Hummers, a C-130 cargo plane, and several U-Haul trailers just to carry it back and forth from Austin to Clear Lake (perhaps that’s why he spends so much of his campaign cash on gasoline). He’s got numerous negative citations from the Texas Ethics Commission for lapses like buying $1,500 boots with campaign contributions. Too, he’s got ties to unpopular Republicans like Karl Rove, who came to the district to fundraise for him. Worse than perhaps all of that, is a litany of votes that are utterly beyond out of touch with his district.

Matula has what it takes to win this race, but defeating an entrenched incumbent is never an easy task.

WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO WIN: Matula must highlight the differences between herself and Davis, and use a massive amount of paid media and field operations to point out his negatives and her positives. A negative campaign is an utter necessity in this district. Too, Matula will need a lot of funds to help offset what third-party interests will likely spend on Davis. One of Davis’ most beloved sugar daddies is Houston Homebuilder Bob Perry.

WHAT WILL TIP IT: The right hit. If Matula’s campaign manages to zero in on a particular hit that resonates with voters in the district, Davis will be toast. Absent that, a campaign that associates Davis’ name with his poor record will do nicely. The only thing we can forsee that would tip the race back toward Davis is a lot of money from third parties spent on his behalf. However, it will be very difficult to spend any amount of money that will erase from voters’ minds the fact that Davis abandoned them at their time of need, is in bed with nearly every lobbyist from big pharma to mental health privatization to big insurance, and has a bad voting record. Davis will try to use wedge issues like immigration to tip the scales in his direction, but, given a combination of Ike and the bailout at the federal level, we believe this will be too little, too late.

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