HOT HOUSE RACES: Texas House District 144 (LEAN REPUBLICAN)

Texas House District 144: Joel Redmond (D-Pasadena) v. Ken Legler (R-Pasadena); open seat LEAN REPUBLICAN. In the race for the seat State Rep. Robert Talton (R-Pasadena) leaves open thanks to his ill-fated run for Congress in the 22nd Congressional District, Democrat Joel Redmond has the opportunity to win the seat. For one thing, this is a Harris County seat, and Redmond will benefit from the massive coordinated campaign being waged in Harris County this cycle, as well as a very likely heavily pro-Obama turnout in the nation’s third largest urban county.

If this district was located anywhere outside Harris County, we’d rate it a Safe Republican district.

That said, we do believe Redmond will have to do more than he has done to date to win the race. We’ve not seen much from his campaign, in spite of the fact that this should be a competitive race.

WHAT THE DEMOCRAT HAS TO DO TO WIN. He’ll need a lot of money, and he’s going to have to do something serious to gain some earned media as well as have a great field campaign and flawless mail program.

WHAT WILL TIP IT: A heavy pro-Obama turnout among the electorate here could well cause a lot of votes to fall Redmond’s way. Of course, Republicans are depending upon holding this seat, and they’ll likely spend a lot of cash to do so, meaning a very negative campaign from R’s could doom Redmond’s chances.

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