HOT HOUSE RACES: Texas House District 96 (LEAN DEMOCRATIC)

Texas House District 96: Chris Turner (D-Burleson) v. State Rep. Bill Zedler (R-Arlington), challenge seat, LEAN DEMOCRATIC. Five years ago, it would have been difficult to predict that Bill Zedler’s House District 96 would have been ready to trend Democratic any time before the end of the decade and, perhaps, before 2011 redistricting. However, a unique election cycle can change anything, and if Zedler’s district is going to trend, this is the year it will trend. Though less of a true swing district by our definition (there are, of course, many ways to define a swing district) than Maldonado’s HD 52 in Williamson County, the district is one that is clearly ripe for change.

To Turner’s advantage, he is running against someone whose beliefs and past actions can truly be called bizarre. From his participation in a tasteless protest at the Cowgirl Hall of Fame in Fort Worth, to the fact that he tried to put words in the mouth of former U.S. Surgeon General C. Everett Koop, to the fact that he wanted to be the state’s self-appointed pubic hair police, Zedler has a bizarr lot of baggage–and that doesn’t even count the fact that indicted former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay’s corrupt political action committee paid Zedler’s legal bills after a costly election challenge.

Zedler also has the added disadvantage of having had a bruising primary election fight this year. While money from the right-wing and scare tactics to get out right-wing voters won the primary for Zedler, things from that race like $10,000 from school voucher activist Dr. James Leininger will come back to haunt him now.

The biggest thing Turner has going for him is that Zedler is basically out-of-touch with this district. The district has changed–maybe not completely trended Democratic–but has shifted enough that someone as right-wing as Zedler no longer represents the mainstream. Turner, who was recently endorsed by the Fort Worth Star Telegram and Texas Parent PAC, offers real solutions to the problems facing District 96–from transportation gridlock to air pollution–while Zedler merely plans to march lock-step with the House’s coalition of ultra-right wing Republican radicals.

WHAT THE DEMOCRAT HAS TO DO TO WIN: We believe that Turner’s best strategy to tilt the race in his direction is to point out how out of touch Zedler is with the district. Point out that he’s done zero for the district, and pound that point home. In this race and this district, a negative attack against Zedler is the right course of action. Turner should miss no opportunity to point out Zedler’s poor record on behalf of the district and highlight how out of touch Zedler is with the district. Of course, money will be a factor and we fully expect James Leininger to come out of hibernation and help one of his most loyal foot soldiers either through direct contributions or through various PACs.

WHAT WILL TILT IT: A major negative attack or counterattack by Zedler could actually be what Turner needs in this district. Seeing Zedler coming out touting issues like immigration and voter identification when pocketbook issues and other “close to home” issues are impacting the district would actually help turn the race further in Turner’s favor. Of course, a significant infusion of Leininger or other right-wing cash on Zedler’s behalf could also have negative implications for Turner depending upon how that money is spent. Like HD 78, we believe that Republicans will do their best to disrupt the election process at polling places and Turner needs to have all necessary forces ready to combat this. Voter intimidation will be a major factor on election day.

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