2008 TEXAS ELECTION RANKINGS: Final State Legislative Electoral Rankings Before Election Day
Vince Leibowitz | Nov 01, 2008 | Comments 0
Capitol Annex has revised its Hot House Races, House Races To Watch, and Senate Race Rankings for likely the last time prior to election day. In the latest round of rankings, no seats were upgraded and a total of seven seats across two lists were downgraded. One seat was moved to the Hot House Races list, but was neither upgraded or downgraded.
House District 107 where Allen Vaught faces ex-state representative Bill Keffer was moved from the Races To Watch list to the Hot House Races list, but continues to be rated Lean Democratic. The race was moved to the Hot Races list based upon aggressive negative campaigning by Keffer in the district which has gained significant media attention.
On the Hot House Races list, House District 52 was downgraded from LEAN DEMOCRATIC to TOSS UP/ADVANTAGE D based upon statewide early voting trends appearing to illustrate that Obama at the top of the ticket appears to be driving up Republican turnout and creating a Democratic backlash in rural and suburban areas. House District 129 was downgraded from LIKELY DEMOCRATIC to LEAN DEMOCRATIC for the same reasons.
Four races on the RACES TO WATCH list were downgraded. House Districts 1 (Rep. Steven Frost v. George Lavender), 3 (Rep. Mark Homer v. Kirby Hollingsworth), 11 (Rep. Chuck Hopson v. Brian Walker), and 12 (Rep. Jim McReynolds v. Van Brookshire) were all downgraded from SAFE DEMOCRATIC to LEAN DEMOCRATIC based upon the predominantly rural and suburban nature of the districts and reasons mentioned earlier.
Capitol Annex’s state senate rankings remain unchanged. See the charts below:
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three House races receiving most of my attention are HD-112, HD-129, and HD-149, where AAA-Fund endorsee Sandra VuLe and Sherrie Matula are trying to help turn Texas blue and AAA-Fund endorseeHubert Vo is seeking to preserve his seat. Vince Leibowitzrates all three of these races“lean Democratic.” Matula recently received some major news coverage. The local CBS station, KHOU, led with a story about her race on the 6 o’clock news on Friday: The race received this attention because her opponent is funded in four and
