Hutchison Likely To Keep Seat While Running For Governor In 2010

PoliTex advises us that Austin “talk” is that U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison “is reassessing plans to resign from the Senate to challenge Republican incumbent Gov. Rick Perry in 2010. She still intently plans to run but may choose to retain her Senate seat while campaigning.”

We really hate to toot to say, “we told you so,” at Capitol Annex, but we’ve been saying she would never resign for two years:

The problem? That’s more than an “if.” For one thing, Hutchison has to announce a run for governor and vacate the seat in the Senate in time for the 2010 election cycle. Otherwise, Hutchison can opt to run for Governor while remaining in the U.S. Senate, meaning the seat won’t likely be vacant until she’s sworn into office–and is able to appoint someone to the seat (a someone who is not likely to be Florence Shapiro).

And, it would appear that the “Austin wisdom” is similar to what we’ve been saying all along. Via PoliTex:

The reasoning?

Her resignation would enable Perry to appoint a successor who could snipe at her from Washington, essentially putting Hutchison in the middle of a D.C-Austin crossfire.

Hutchison may announce an exploratory campaign for the governor’s race in December or early next year. Hutchison spokesman Matt Mackowiak declined to comment.

In other words, Hutchison doesn’t want Perry to appoint either Lt. Governor David Dewhurst or State Sen. Florence Shapiro (R-Plano) to her seat, because Dewhurst will gladly snipe at Hutchison and Shapiro would do anything–including promising Perry she will put on a unitard and challenge Hutchison to a WWE-style brawl in the capitol rotunda just to get her hands on the seat. Even Hutchison is probably smart enough to know that former interior decorator Elizabeth Ames Jones isn’t on Perry’s appointment radar for such prime real estate (meaning she can stop longingly looking through those swatch books to figure out which shade of mauve would best match the Washington sunlight).

Hutchison knows that, if she resigns, Perry has two legitimate options to fill her seat: Dewhurst or Shapiro. And, she knows Perry will most likely pick Dewhurst, who has coveted the seat relentlessly for the better part of a decade. Why? Because if Perry picks Dewhurst, then he is able to eleminate one more person from a gubernatorial primary. After all, Dewhurst could well decide that, though he covets the senate seat, his chances might be better in a GOP Primary against Perry and Hutchison where Hutchison wipes the floor with Perry and Dewhurst can depend on hard-core evangelicals turning out in droves in runoff to wipe the floor with Hutchison.

Naturally, if Perry picked Dewhurst to get him out of any gubernatorial frey, he’d gladly snipe at Hutchison from afar, provided his Max Factor Pancake No. 113 was in good supply so he could look stunningly tan for the cameras.

And, Hutchison wouldn’t want Shapiro to get the seat either, because it would mean she’d likely have to contend with Dewhurst and Perry in a primary. After all, one way or the other, Dewhurst isn’t staying where he is, because AG Gregg Abbott is already sizing up that office. Plus, Shapiro would probably gladly snipe at Hutchison from afar, too.

Of course, this brings up questions about what happens on the Democratic side.

I doubt we’ll see Mikal Watts attempt a reprisal of his 2007 exploration. Surely $8 million per decade on a senate race that ended before filing began is his limit. People talk a good game about Bill White, but he’s more likely to hit the gubernatorial race in 2010. Congressman Chet Edwards isn’t leaving the House; he’s got too much seniority and can do too much good to risk it on a senate race. Plus, as with any Congressman, he has the disadvantage of actually having a decade-plus long voting record that, no matter how conservative, will be picked apart by Republicans like a mince pie. If he goes upward, it will be to the Obama cabinet.

Former Dallas Mayor Laura Miller is out; when she went to work for coal companies after fighting them, that pretty much ended that chapter. Plus, firefighters hate her from her days as Dallas mayor and we’d see firefighters across the state mobilized against her. Congressman Lloyd Doggett is a possibility, but probably considered too liberal to win statewide. There has been a nasty rumor that Carole Keeton Strayhorn might try to make an Austin-mayor-to-U.S. Senate bump as a Democrat, but her lackluster 2006 campaign as a Texas independent probably sealed her fate as a non-starter for any future statewide office. Kinky Friedman is a joke. State Sen. Kirk Watson could legitimately make the jump from the state senate to the U.S. Senate, but, as a progressive, he could actually have a much more significant impact on the state as Lt. Governor (a post “conventional wisdom” says he has expressed interest in).

Former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk is probably also a non-starter this time around.

Aside from a few other legislators who might have both the interest and/or the ability to pull the race off (State Rep. Mark Strama (D-Austin); State Rep. Pete Gallego (D-Austin); State Rep. Mike Villarreal (D-San Antonio); State Rep. Juan Garcia (D-Corpus Christi) we’re left with exactly one option:

John Sharp.

And, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Consider this: Sharp is one of a handful of former Democratic officeholders in Texas who still have statewide name recognition, after being out of office nearly a decade. Sharp has always managed to run a race and be the kind of elected leader that was palatable to both the liberal wing of the Democratic Party and the conservative wing of the Democratic Party. Plus, business likes Sharp; money likes Sharp.

Does he have disadvantages? Yes. The 2006 Perry-Sharp Tax Plan is an albatross. But, that’s easily spun. After all, it was the Legislature, not Sharp, that decided on the final numbers and rates in the plan, and Perry who gave them his ultimate seal of approval. That he didn’t do so hot against Dewhurst in 2002 is also not good. However, that was perhaps the worst year for Democrats in Texas since the Civil War. Had Ann Richards and Bob Bullock had a lovechild that spoke like Barbara Jordan and had the political force of will of Lyndon Johnson, Henry Cisneros, and and Charlie Wilson combined and he had run in that election, he (or she) would have lost by sixteen points even if he spent $90 million and God in heaven himself had dropped from the firmament to volunteer to give voters a ride to the polls.

In short, Sharp isn’t a bad option; in fact, he is a damned good option of Democrats actually want to win both United States Senate seats.

He’s got tremendous advantages, too. For one thing, unlike a mayor or Congressman or House member, Sharp hasn’t cast votes in a public forum since he was in the Texas Senate or on the Texas Railroad Commission. Thus, it’ll be pretty hard for the Republicans to dredge up recent votes he’s cast that make him look bad (the “tax plan” being an almost exception). Too, as a statewide officeholder in Texas, he did a lot of good; he was a reformer. He combated Food Stamp Fraud, made the most successful lottery debut in America happen (even though he himself opposed the Lottery when it went through the Lege and for voter approval), and more. As comptroller, his reviews of various schools and agencies saved taxpayers billions of dollars and set the gold standard for every comptroller since to follow.

The funny part about the paragraph above is that is all from memory. Ask me what Bob Bullock did while he was in office and I can tell you one thing–maybe two: legislation to “outlaw” the income tax and the constitutional amendment about the constitutional spending limit. Mark White? House Bill 72. I’m a serious political junkie, but I can recall more that Sharp did than Bullock. Part of that is that, while in office, Sharp did a hell of a job marketing himself; part of that is also that the 2002 campaign was pretty effective at reminding voters of all of this–so effective I still remember it. If I still remember specifics, you can bet that other voters still remember at least generalities. If that is the case, Sharp’s got a good chance.

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