Dunnam Says We Can Stick A Fork In Tom Craddick; We’re Not Quite As Optimistic

Texas House Majority Leader Rep. Jim Dunnam (D-Waco) said yesterday that we could “stick a fork” in Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick (R-Midland), because his tenure as House Speaker is effectively over.

“I would say stick a fork in Tom Craddick,” Rep. Jim Dunnam, D-Waco, leader of the House Democrats said Wednesday. “It’s over.”

While Rep. Dunnam undoubtedly has an inside track that’s difficult to dispute, we’re just not as optimistic. as the Majority Leader. After all, a race like this is tough to handicap in a House Chamber where many members fancy themselves future State Senators or higher officeholders, a handful are scared shitless they’ll get primaried and beaten or caught in a Democratic/Republican wave in their county and out of the House before they are vested in the pension, and a half bear political grudges against people in the other party or their own caucus over a killed bill, some slight, or just because they just plain hate the other party (that mostly goes for Republicans, of course).

Unless State Rep. Linda Harper-Brown (R-Irving) ends up losing after a recount (and, potentially protracted court battle after a recount), saying that Craddick will be replaced may be optimistic, no matter how much the vast majority of Texans would like for it to be true. If Harper-Brown pulls this one out, replacing Craddick may be easier said than done. And, even with a 75-75 tie, it is no sure thing unless a few surprises crop up along the way.

First of all, if Harper-Brown wins, Craddick has been firming up his base of support in the House. Yes, Republicans are dissatisfied with him and many were peeved that he held back a million dollars that could have been spent on competitive races. But, translating that dissatisfaction into enough votes to rid the dais of Craddick once and for all may be much easier said than done.

Consider that Craddick firmed up his base with the addition of Craddick D’s in two primaries this year. He gained Marisia Marquez (D-El Paso) and Tia Rios Ybarra (D-Kingsville) in the primary. In the general, he gained Tim Kleinschmidt (R-La Grange), Angie Chen Button (R-Garland), and Mark Shelton (D-Fort Worth).

Plus, consider that a number of Democrats could likely reprise their votes for him (Chavez, Pena, Guillen, Lucio, Puente, Flores, Dukes, Rose, and Dutton). Granted, Chavez should have learned her lesson and Rose and Dutton are unlikely to swing toward Craddick again. Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston), though a candidate for Speaker himself, could easily be seen to swing back toward Craddick.  Nevertheless, it is a close call. Here is who voted for Craddick last time around:

Anderson; Aycock; Bailey; Berman; Bohac; Bonnen; Branch; Brown, B.; Callegari; Chavez; Chisum; Christian; Cook, B.; Corte; Crabb; Craddick; Creighton; Crownover; Darby; Davis, J.; Delisi; Deshotel; Driver; Dukes; Dutton; Eissler; England; Flores; Flynn; Gattis; Giddings; Goolsby; Guillen; Hamilton; Hancock; Hardcastle; Harless; Harper-Brown; Hartnett; Hilderbran; Hill; Howard, C.; Isett; Jackson; Keffer; King, P.; King, S.; King, T.; Kolkhorst; Krusee; Laubenberg; Lucio; Macias; Madden; McClendon; Miller; Morrison; Mowery; Murphy; Orr; Otto; Parker; Patrick; Paxton; Peña; Phillips; Puente; Riddle; Rose; Smith, W.; Smithee; Solomons; Swinford; Taylor; Truitt; Turner; Van Arsdale; Woolley; Zedler; Zerwas.

People like Bailey, Van Arsdale, and Zedler are gone from the list. But the Craddick Ds remain (plus two). Angie Chen Button replaces Hill and is a likely reliable Craddick vote. Democrats like Deshotel, Chavez, and Dutton will likely drop off. Dukes, we’re not so sure about. Conventional wisdom says Rose and Chavez won’t be in Craddick’s camp. But, Kleinschmidt and Mark Shelton take their place along with likely Craddick D’s Ybarra and Marquez. England fled the Dark Side and is a Democrat now, Krusee is replaced with Maldonado who will most certainly not vote for Craddick. However, Anti-Craddick D Garcia was replaced by Todd Hunter who is a likely reliable Craddick vote.

In terms of handicapping, it’s just a damned mess when it is this close. You can easily see Craddick getting to 76 if it is a 75-75 tie (though it would be tough because party pressure would seriously be on) and you can easily see him getting to 77 if it is a 76 seat majority. [Correction: I think he's got to get to 77 on either count].

Will Democrats have to pick off Republican supporters of Craddick if there isn’t a tie? If there is, will party discipline hold? Will the Craddick D’s vote for a Democratic speaker if it is a risky proposition? Only time will tell.