Obama Underperformed John Kerry In 100 Texas Counties
By Vince Leibowitz on Nov 6, 2008 in 2008 Texas Elections ![[Post to Twitter]](/wp-content/plugins/tweet-this/icons/tt-twitter.png){kind=icon}
Tweet This Post 
Barack Obama’s performance in Tuesday’s election was worse than John Kerry’s performance in 100 counties across Texas according to a comparison of data from the 2004 and 2008 elections.
In some cases, Obama underperformed and voterturnout was significantly lower than it was four years ago.
Although the majority of the counties are in North East Texas, the range of counties where Obama performed worse than Kerry includes counties across Texas.
Take a look at the spreadsheet:
The counties where Obama underperformed Kerry are:
NEWTON
ORANGE
SABINE
CASS
HARDIN
RED RIVER
MORRIS
TYLER
HALL
KING
BAYLOR
JASPER
LEON
MOTLEY
STONEWALL
JACK
HARDEMAN
MARION
MONTAGUE
BOWIE
SAN AUGUSTINE
KENT
PANOLA
BORDEN
CLAY
SHELBY
ARMSTRONG
RAINS
ROBERTSON
FANNIN
TRINITY
THROCKMORTON
LAVACA
WHEELER
EASTLAND
LIBERTY
COLLINGSWORTH
DELTA
KNOX
BURLESON
COLEMAN
UPSHUR
PALO PINTO
HASKELL
CARSON
MILAM
HARRISON
ARCHER
HARTLEY
SAN JACINTO
YOUNG
POLK
DONLEY
LIMESTONE
HOUSTON
STEPHENS
CHILDRESS
VAN ZANDT
HENDERSON
WISE
FOARD
CAMP
LAMAR
SAN SABA
HEMPHILL
MADISON
FALLS
OLDHAM
JONES
TITUS
GALVESTON
COMANCHE
LIPSCOMB
CHAMBERS
COTTLE
WOOD
GRIMES
HOPKINS
SHACKELFORD
ROBERTS
MENARD
FREESTONE
HUTCHINSON
RUNNELS
FISHER
ANDERSON
MITCHELL
GRAY
SOMERVELL
ANGELINA
COOKE
BOSQUE
JEFFERSON
CALLAHAN
MILLS
HOOD
LLANO
JOHNSON
OCHILTREE
RUSK
Although Texas Democrats may not want to admit to an “Obama Effect” in various counties, take a look at Galveston County. Kerry was higher by about two percent. Turnout was also depressed, though that is likely due to Hurricane Ike. Thinking about a race like Joe Jaworski’s race for Senate, one wonders if a different candidate atop the ballot would have translated to more votes. Granted, using these numbers, that wouldn’t be enough for a win, and it isn’t 100 percent certain if Obama bled that 2 percent from Democrats all the way down the ballot, but I’d bet it is likely. We’re going to try to get 2004 and 2008 by-precinct number for Galveston County and do a comparison.
Look also, in the spreadsheet, at Upshur County. Upshur County lost registered voters and turnout was down this year by 26 percent. That’s astounding. But, there are reasons.
In 2004, Upshur County was at the epicenter of a lot of contested races that drove up turnout on both sides. The Sandlin v. Gohmert contest for Congressional District 1, the Glaze/Hughes rematch for House District 5, and a hotly contested local Sheriff’s race all drove up turnout. This year, Upshur County had the benefit of neither a contested Congressional race nor a contested state legislative race. Plus, in 2004, Upshur County voters had been primed early a couple of times because of a special election for Bill Ratliff’s unexpired term in Senate District 1.
A couple of things we can learn from this: Democrats will likely have a more difficult time in these counties with Obama at the top of the ballot, and local races drive turnout for the top of the ticket. People in rural counties like Upshur turnout in significant numbers for local races that impact them directly like sheriff, the legislature, and Congress.
We’ll post more on this later.
Tweet This Post ![[Post to Ping.fm]](/wp-content/plugins/tweet-this/icons/tt-ping.png){kind=icon}
Ping This Post
I believe you are comparing complete returns with incomplete returns without some mail-in ballots and all provisional ballots.
That is correct, but a few provisionals and military ballots in these counties won’t move anything beyond a quarter or maybe half percent.