Looking To 2010: The Battle For Governor Shapes Up

With U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison’s announcement today that she formed an exploratory committee to run for Texas governor in 2010, the race for that position is beginning to transform is beginning to take shape.

There remains, however, only one definite candidate in the race: incumbent Texas Governor Rick Perry, who announced in April that he would seek an unprecedented third four-year term.

Hutchison’s move yesterday has, however, called the bluff of many political watchers across the state, including Capitol Annex. We had projected, as had several others, that Hutchison’s talk about running for governor was another smoke screen and that she would–as she did in 2006–opt instead to stay where she was.

Although an exploratory committee does not a bona fide candidate make, Hutchison’s decision to funnel $1 million to the effort does make it look serious.

That said, let’s take a serious look at what is shaping up for this race in 2010.

On the Republican side, Rick Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison are the most likely candidates. Among these two, the party’s ultraconservative wing appears to be on the verge of schism. Some want to stick with Perry because of his conservative bona fides. Other conservatives appear to be more pragmatic and are looking seriously at Hutchison because they believe she’ll have a better chance against any Democratic nominee than Perry, who garnered only 39 percent Texas’ voters support in a five-way race for Governor in 2006.

There are, however, other candidates. Whether or not some will run or not will, no doubt, depend upon exactly when Hutchison resigns. Lt. Governor David Dewhurst is a possibility; so is Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael L. Williams. A second-tier possibility is ultra-right-wing State Rep. Leo Berman (R-Tyler) who has already asked the Texas Attorney General to rule on the constitutional resign to run requirement and potentially clear (or block) a path to an election announcement.

There are some we know are out: State Sen. Dan Patrick (R-Houston) has evidently realized he lacks enough of a statewide base for such a high-profile run and is reportedly considering a bid for Texas Land Commissioner. Attorney General Greg Abbott has reportedly cemented himself to a run for Lt. Governor. Harris County Tax Assessor Paul Bettencourt has seen his star fall a bit too much in the last year, and is out as well.

On the Democratic side, Houston Mayor Bill White continues to be the elephant in the room. He is expected to make an announcement one way or the other later this year. White, however, is a pick that not a lot of progressives and liberals in the party will be happy with. Former Texas Comptroller John Sharp is, of course, a possibility, but is more likely to be a candidate for U.S. Senate to replace Hutchison–when and if she ultimately resigns her seat. Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle is a person many progressives could get behind, but he’d probably need to raise his name identification statewide. State Sen. Leticia Van De Putte (D-San Antonio) has been mentioned as a potential candidate of quality, but whether or not she’d actually be interested in making a run is largely unknown. She is another candidate Progressives could potentially support.  Congressman Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) is another possibility who has been mentioned for statewide office in the past. A former Texas Secretary of State, he’s already served in statewide office (although it was by appointment). His record as a conservative congressman may hurt him among many Democrats, but his record isn’t really as conservative as his two incidents of Bush hugging would indicate.  Of late, Congressman Chet Edwards (D-Waco) has been mentioned as someone a small set of party insiders would like to seek the post, but he is under such significant pressure to remain in Congress so Texas does not lose yet another seat in Congress it is doubtful he’d blink an eye at the post. Just today, the name of unsuccessful State Senate candidate Joe Jaworski (D-Galveston) surfaced in terms of folks from “outside the Austin beltway” that could make a race, but we see that as unlikely to happen in spite of the fact that Jaworski would, in all reality, make one hell of a statewide officeholder. And, naturally, Kinky Friedman continues to surface as a potential candidate for the Governor’s job (God save us).

Hypothetical Matchups, GOP Primary.

Kay Bailey Hutchison versus Rick Perry. In a one-on-one contest, Perry barely edges out Hutchison, but is likely barely outspent by his rival.

Kay Bailey Hutchison versus Rick Perry versus Michael L. Williams. Conservatives split between Perry and Williams, and Williams winds up in a runoff with Hutchison; Hutchison emerges victorious after a bloody primary.

Kay Bailey Hutchison versus Rick Perry versus David Dewhurst. Conservatives ally with Dewhurst and Perry, and either Perry or Dewhurst winds up in a runoff with Hutchison. If it is Perry versus Hutchison, Hutchison wins. If it is Dewhurst versus Hutchison, conservatives coalesce around Dewhurst and he pulls out a squeaker.

Kay Bailey Hutchison versus Rick Perry versus Michael Williams versus David Dewhurst. If this quartet ends up running, both Perry and Hutchison could wind up taking a back seat to Dewhurst’s personal fortune and the fact that Michael L. Williams is the only one of the four who doesn’t have an extensive voting record or veto record (or, in Perry’s case, record of shoddy leadership) that can be attacked from every end. The ultimate upset would be a Dewhurst versus Williams runoff, where Williams emerges victorious because conservatives view him as having less baggage and he’s more palatable to moderate Republicans even though that’s only on the surface.

Hypothetical Matchups, General Election.

Bill White versus Kay Bailey Hutchison. This could rival Tony Sanchez v. Rick Perry as the most expensive governor’s race in state history. And, in the end, it is a toss up and could result in the kinds of recounts we’re seeing right now in Minnesota. Yes, this could be the closest statewide race in Texas political history. But, we are still not confident that White is the Democrat to best Kay Bailey Hutchison.

Rick Perry versus Bill White. Rick Perry moves back to Paint Creek with his tail tucked firmly between his legs in a 55-45 defeat.

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