Who Will Perry Appoint To Hutchison’s Senate Seat?

The hottest question in Texas politics right now is who Texas Governor Rick Perry will appoint to U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison’s seat if and when she resigns to former formalize her campaign for Texas Governor.

Key to answering this question is timing–Hutchison’s timing. Conventional wisdom until yesterday had Hutchison resigning in June after the 81st Session of the Texas Legislature. Now, she is debunking that:

“If I should quit, I would not intend to resign before the end of next year,” she said, scotching rumors that she might resign as early as June to focus attention on the governor’s race.

Many Austin insiders are calling Hutchison’s bluff and deem this statement nothing more than Rovian disinformation. We tend to agree.

Unless Hutchison opts to stay in the Senate until after the election–or the Republican Primary–an option we’re not sure isn’t her real goal, Perry will get the opportunity to appoint someone to the seat before January of 2010–when filing closes for the 2010 elections.

Let’s explore Perry’s options on appointments.

Lt. Governor David Dewhurst. This is the most likely option–no matter when Hutchison resigns. Why? Because Perry can’t afford Dewhurst in a GOP Primary for Governor in 2010–with or without Kay Bailey Hutchison. Plus, Dewhurst’s massive personal fortune would help him hold the seat provided he makes it to a runoff. That isn’t a sure thing, though, given there could be as many as 20 candidates jump into the eventual special election race. On the downside, Dewhurst is presently under investigation as a result of his personal financial disclosure filings which may be in violation of state law. Assuming that investigation doesn’t result in criminal charges, Perry will likely let Dwhurst sink or swim on his own.

Railroad Commissioner Michael L. Williams. One advantage he has is that he doesn’t have a legislative record he can be attacked on–just the fact that he is in the pocket of the petrochemical industry. Another advantage is that it makes a Republican ticket look more diverse (important if Perry sets a special election to coincide with the 2010 November General Election). Disadvantages include that Williams brings a special set of negatives to the table. Unlike any other potential pick, Williams is the only candidate who could be subjected to TV attack ads that accuse him of leading a state agency and being asleep at the wheel while people blew up in their homes. When posed in contrast to other candidates simply voting on a financial industry bailout…well, you get the idea.

State Senator Florence Shapiro (R-Plano). Shapiro is essentially the favorite right now–but not for an appointment. Instead, she is he favorite to win over other Republicans in a special election. Don’t look for Shapiro to get the appointment, though. However, moderately conservative Republican women (and some Republican women in general) will demand that Perry replace Hutchison with another woman. If that becomes a groundswell, look for Shapiro to be going head-to-head in the nomination process against Elizabeth Ames Jones.

Elizabeh Ames Jones. Her big chance here comes if Perry wants to appoint someone who will under no circumstances have a chance at winning the seat.

Henry Bonillia. The former Republican Congressman from San Antonio is reportedly on several short lists. Some, however, would like to see Bonillia run only if he agrees no to run in the special election. Others see him as another option for diversity for the Party.

Harris County Tax Assessor Paul Bettencourt. No likely, but he’ll be pushed by a lot of he anti-tax wingnut crowd.

State Sen. Dan Patrick. Another person Perry can appoint if he doesn’t wan he appointee to win. This is, however, an appointment that would keep Patrick off Perry’s heels in the governor’s race and appease he righ wing.

Congressman Joe Barton. He’s already run unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate in he 1993 Special Election that gave Hutchison he post. The problem with Baron, though, is that he is the “past” of a Texas Republican Party that is looking for new faces. He’s also go a long Congressional record opponents can seriously attack.

Congressman Jeb Hensarling. The Dallas Congressman is widely viewed–in Texas and nationally–as a rising conservative star. While he’s a lock to run in a special election, don’t look for him to get the appointment. Why? Because it would create a special election–during an election year–in a district that has a significant number of voters in Dallas County. There is some chance, and it isn’t as remote as some think–that a Democrat could pick up this seat in a special election in an election year when Dallas County is running a major coordinated campaign effort.

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