Secret Summits, Shuttle Diplomacy Fixtures In Final Days Of The Speaker’s Race

Secret summits. Shuttle diplomacy. Dissidents. No, we’re not talking about Henry Kissinger in China; we’re talking about the race for Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives which has, in recent days, has taken on all the features of an attempted coup in a banana republic (save the artistic posters and marching through the streets). 

So much is going on in the Speaker’s race right now, it is tough to figure out where to start. So, bear with us as we do our best.

First, there is reported to be a secret summit tonight somewhere in Austin comprised of eleven “Anybody But Craddick” Republicans, of which State Rep. Charlie Geren (R-Fort Worth) may or may not be the revolutionary leader:

Known as the ABC Republicans — Anybody But Craddick — the 11 dissidents plan to meet late this afternoon to unite behind a consensus candidate to challenge Craddick when House members elect their speaker on the opening day of the Legislature on Jan. 13.

The gathering at an undisclosed location is part of a pre-session frenzy that could decide whether Craddick retains his hold on the speaker’s chair or succumbs to a widening bipartisan rebellion waged by dissident Republicans and at least 64 of the 74 House Democrats.

 

The whole issue of whether or not Geren is a “driving force” behind this group is hilarious. He says he isn’t, others say he is:

He downplays his importance to the oust-Craddick effort, saying, “I’m not playing any key role at all. I’m just happy to be part of the process.”

But others say the Fort Worth Republican has been a driving force in organizing bipartisan opposition to Craddick. Rep. Tommy Merritt, R-Longview, one of the Republican speaker candidates, said Geren has served as “an ambassador to the Democrats” during the weeks of cellphone strategy sessions to mount an assault against the speaker.

Another candidate for speaker, Rep. Pete Gallego, D-Alpine, said Geren has engaged in a kind of “shuttle diplomacy” between factions and has earned the respect of Democrats. “He’s just making sure that everybody stays in the loop,” Gallego said.

Ah, good old “shuttle diplomacy.” Thank you, Henry Kissinger and Warren Christopher.

Either way, there is a big difference between leading the insurgency (or, is it a counter-insurgency?) and just going along for the ride. Rep. Geren makes it sound more like he’s just one of the guerillas in the back of the jeep going along for the ride, while Merritt makes it sound like he’s holding a picket sign and leading the charge to bang down the door of the Speaker’s capitol apartment. 

ABC Republicans aren’t the only ones conferring this weekend–or even today. The Associated Press reports that ABC Democrats are expected to meet today as well: 

A group of Democrats vowing to oppose Craddick “under any circumstances” is also expected to hold a speaker strategy session on Friday. 

 

And Craddick’s team is supposed to gather on Sunday for the Last Supper of Tea & Burgers (and the likely flogging of Warren Chisum):

Chisum said he was invited by another Craddick ally who told him: “We’re having hamburgers and ice tea and we ain’t drinking no whiskey. We’re going to make some serious decisions.”

Finally, conservative think tanks like the Texas Eagle Forum are wading knee-deep into the race. Quorum Report noted the following:

What made last night’s missive so interesting, however, was that it was followed almost immediately by a rebuttal from the ranks. The original e-mail, which went out late last night from Cathie Adams of the Texas Eagle Forum, compared the group meeting today to pick a Speaker opponent to the dozen Senators who blocked Pres. George W. Bush’s judicial appointments. 

 

So, we have at least two separate insurgent groups (ABC Republicans and ABC Democrats) who may or may not have secret strategy sessions sometime today. Then, we have Craddick’s forces who will have a final strategy session before the revolutionaries storm the Bastille. And we’ve got shuttle diplomacy, and right-wing think tanks who are siding with the establishment. 

Does any or all of this mean there will be a new Speaker? Sadly, we’re still inclined to say it seems somewhat unlikely–but not impossible. For one thing, it is a lot easier to get 64 to 76 elected representatives to decide who they do not want for Speaker. Getting them to decide from among the 12 existing candidates (plus those who haven’t formally declared yet) and pick one is as improbable as sending a four-year-old into a Toys-R-Us  and telling him he may only pick one toy and not having him sit down in the middle of an aisle and throw a tantrum when he can’t have two. 

There continue to be Republicans–like State Rep. Will Hartnett (R-Dallas) and State Rep. Phil King (R-Weatherford) who say the odds are on Craddick remaining speaker.

Hartnett:

Rep. Will Hartnett, R-Dallas, is one of House Speaker Tom Craddick’s most loyal lieutenants. But as a House member since 1991, he also has seen his share of speaker’s races. And Hartnett believes that, despite the many alleged grievances against Craddick, a majority of House members will stick with the leader they know.

“Just because someone has been a (House) colleague, it does not give you a solid feel as to how they would act as speaker,” Hartnett said.

A probate attorney and chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, Hartnett said lawyers prefer going into a courtroom where they know the judge and how he or she is likely to rule so they won’t be caught off guard.

“A lawyer doesn’t want to go into a courtroom with a spin-the-wheel judge,” he said.

Hartnett also downplayed the idea that a group of disaffected Republicans known as the “group of 11″ will be able to choose the next speaker with the help of 64 Democrats committed to voting against Craddick.

“Whoever the group of 11 picks as their nominee will just be an agent for the minority party,” he said.

 

King: 

“I think if I was a betting man, I would bet that Tom Craddick is still going to be speaker,” said Rep. Phil King, R-Weatherford, a Craddick loyalist. “You always want to bet on the man with the gavel.”

The bottom line here is that a lot of Republicans will have to decide whether or not they want to risk losing out on plum committee assignments and risk being challenged in the GOP Primary either by Craddick’s forces or by folks that are on friendly terms with the Texas Eagle Forum and groups like that who want Craddick to retain control. 

For Republicans, it’s actually a lose-lose situation, if they side against Craddick. If they side against him and win, they might get a good committee seat, but they risk challengers recruited by the right-wing of their party–whether Craddick is involved or not. 

If they side against him and lose, they are backbenched, and face a likely primary challenge and could have legislation vital to their districts laid to waste on the House floor.

For most Democrats, however, it isn’t that way. While pro-Craddick D’s may find themselves with primary challenges, most of those in the Valley are probably safe, because their alliance with Craddick is what the machine and community leaders in their districts want, because it means more appropriations dollars for the districts. Anti-Craddick D’s have zero to lose if Craddick wins or loses. If he wins, their status isn’t likely to change (except for those who were for Craddick and are now against him who will likely lose Committee seats). House Democrats remain the minority in a chamber where Republicans aren’t going to let too many progressive ideas get out of the starting gate. 

Craddick continuing as Speaker could, in fact, be a boon to Democrats leading up to 2010. Another session like 2007, and we’ll probably be able to pick off as many as seven Republican–plus the poison of the Craddick era will infect the rest of the GOP ticket toward the top of the ballot.

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