Does Sarah Palin’s Endorsement Of Rick Perry Really Help Him?

Nearly a week after a letter to Texas Republican women from Alaska Governor and 2008 GOP Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin touting Texas Governor Rick Perry as the best choice in 2010, no one has yet answered the all important question: does Palin’s endorsement really matter, and will it help him beat Kay Bailey Hutchison?

In her endorsement, Palin noted: 

“He walks the walk of a true conservative. And he sticks by his guns – and you know how I feel about guns,” she said.

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“Not every child is born into ideal circumstances, but every life is sacred,” Palin said in the mail appeal. “Rick Perry knows this – it is at the core of his being.”

Coming up with an answer to the equation of whether or not Perry plus Palin equals a defeat for Hutchison is complicated and nuanced. 

While Palin did energize many Republicans and conservatives to do more to support the McCain ticket last fall, a lot of Republicans still blame her for McCain’s loss. Perry tying himself to Palin could anger some Republicans–be they conservative or liberal–because it could be seen as him tying himself to the wagon of someone who helped bring down the McCain ticket. Even those Republicans who were energized by Palin’s appearance on the scene could still find it a bit distasteful that Perry is accepting an endorsement from someone who managed to look on the national stage like something far less than the sharpest knife in the silverware drawer.

Turning specifically to the issue of female voters, conventional wisdom would say that Palin’s endorsement of Perry doesn’t hurt among women (except, perhaps, professional women who think Palin is an unqualified hack), and may pick him up some votes. How true is that, though, and will it help Perry in any key female Demographics. 

According to the crosstabs of a 2008 Texas Lyceum Poll in which Perry, U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, State Sen. Florence Shapiro (R-Plano), Lt. Governor David Dewhurst, and Railroad Commissioner Michael L. Williams were matched up in a hypothetical GOP Primary for Governor, Hutchison got 50 percent of all voters while Perry got 23 percent.  In terms of women, Hutchison captured support from 34 percent of women while Perry got 23 percent of all women. 

Based upon that poll, clearly, Perry would have ground to make up among women. So, what demographics would Palin attract to Perry’s campaign to help him among women? Most likely the 19-29 and 30-44 age demographic. Oddly enough, Perry already outpolls Hutchison among the youngest of women voters. In the Lyceum poll, Perry polled 42 percent of women between 19 and 29 while Hutchison only polled 23 percent. In the 30-44 age group, Hutchison did better, beating Perry 31-26 percent. Perry gets slaughtered among women against Hutchison in the 45-54 age group (16 percent to Hutchison’s 33); 54-64 (Perry polled 20 to Hutchison’s 31 percent), and over 65’s, where Perry polled 13 and Hutchison had 40. 

While Palin might help perry with his numbers in the 45-54s, it won’t help him among voters over 65  or between 54 and 64–those aren’t demographics Palin appeals to. 

While Palin may help Perry appeal to his conservative base, she won’t help him in another key area: independent and Democratic voters Hutchison will try to woo into the GOP Primary. 

Hutchison’s only chance to win the GOP Primary–typically dominated by Christian conservatives–is to attract new voters to the primary. That means she’ll be doing her best to get Democrats, liberal Republicans who don’t vote in the GOP Primary, and independents into the primary. For Democrats who may cross over, Palin is poison, and it will turn both Democrats and independents away from Perry. It will, however, probably a wash for liberal Republicans who aren’t typical GOP Primary voters. 

So, does Palin’s endorsement help or hurt Perry? Does Palin plus Perry equal a Hutchison defeat? It all depends. Perry still has the upper hand, though.

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