Who Will Perry Pick To Replace Hutchison? Smart Money Is On Dewhurst
Vince Leibowitz | Jul 29, 2009 | Comments 11 |
Speculation has already begun about who Texas Governor Rick Perry will appoint to replace U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison if she resigns early, as she indicated this morning, to run against Perry as governor.
Likely possibilities are Lt. Governor David Dewhurst, State Sen. Florence Shapiro (R-Plano), State Sen. Jane Nelson (R-Flower Mound), Railroad Commissioners Michael L. Williams or Elizabeth Ames Jones, former Secretary of State Roger Williams, Attorney General Greg Abbott, and even State Sen. Dan Patrick (R-Houston).
Out of that list, however, the smart money is on Perry picking Dewhurst. Why?
First and foremost, Texas is already getting a lot of heat in national GOP circles because the Republicans don’t like the thought of an expensive special election and runoff election in May; it will drain much needed resources and funds from nationwide donors that are needed in battleground states in the fall. Lt. Governor David Dewhurst could largely self-fund a U.S. Senate race. In fact, he is arguably the wealthiest of any of the names previously mentioned. By appointing Dewhurst, Perry can let the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee breathe a sigh of relief, because he’d put a well-moneyed placeholder in the Senate who would likely run for the post.
Second, a Dewhurst appointment to the U.S. Senate makes sense looking at the landscape of statewide officeholders. Perry doesn’t want to sap energy or news coverage (or money) from his primary against Kay Bailey Hutchison. My moving Dewhurst to the Senate, he allows AG Greg Abbott to move up the ladder to the Lt. Governor’s race, where he’d likely be unopposed on the GOP side. With apponents unlikely in the primary for Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson or Comptroller Susan Combs, that leavs only the AG’s race and Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples with the potential to generate any kind of primary that could possibly suck money, volunteers, or media away from the Perry versus Hutchison contest. And a GOP primary for AG commissioner would probably be a non-entity as far as Perry’s race is concerned.
Too, moving Dewhurst in as the incumbent U.S. Senator will pretty much guarantee that other Republicans will clear the field and not oppose Dewhurst in a special election. Michael L. Williams and Dewhurst’s senate colleagues would probably bow out of such a race–Williams especially because he’s politically savvy and realizes that in four years he could be his party’s frontrunner for governor if he plays his cards right. Elizabeth Ames Jones and former Secretary of State Roger Williams might stay in, but one call from Perry could probably get Williams to bow out for the sake of the Party.
The strategy behind moving Dewhurst in as the incumbent and hoping to clear the field, of course, depends upon Republicans coalescing around the appointed incumbent.
Given the fact that it is a real possibility that a Democrat could retake the seat in a special election, there will be a lot of party pressure to clear the field for Dewhurst so he could have the opportunity to win the race without a runoff (unlikely, but less unlikely with no other big-name Republicans in the field).
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Filed Under: 2010 Texas Elections
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[...] at Capitol Annex tells why he believes that the smart money is on Texas Governor Rick Perry picking Lt. Governor David Dewhurst to replace U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hut… if she resigns before the end of the [...]