Every time Governor Perry’s “Open for Business” TV commercial aired over the last few weeks, all most sane people could do was yell at the screen (or at least think about doing it) and note that Perry couldn’t really take credit for job growth at McDonald’s and gas stations.
As it turns out, Perry also can’t take credit for massive job growth at Furr’s, but that’s beside the point. The point is that, as Democrats have proclaimed all along and as Republicans continue to deny, job growth in texas isn’t in the area of high-paying jobs, but rather in the lower-paying jobs of the service industry.
Food-service managers at full-service restaurants in Texas are projected to grow to 5,730 by 2018 from 4,520, the workforce commission estimates. First-line supervisors at full-service restaurants are projected to grow to 22,730 from 17,940.The same goes for limited-service restaurants, where food-service managers are projected to grow to 8,520 from 7,010, and first-line supervisors are projected to grow to 40,780 from 33,520.Chefs and cooks will also be in demand. A sous-chef (second-in-charge of the kitchen) might make $40,000-$60,000 a year, plus a bonus, Carlson says.In Texas, chefs and head cooks at full-service restaurants are projected to grow to 3,900 by 2018, up from 3,350, according to the workforce commission. Restaurant cooks at full-service establishments are projected to increase to 79,120 from 60,000.
While the job of sous-chef may be better paying than that of a waitress, and while many fast-food management jobs may pay decently (who hasn’t seen a classified ad in which a Taco Bell manager trainee makes more $2k more per year than a legislative staffer?), the vast majority of these are minimum wage jobs upon which we cannot sustain growth in the Texas economy.
Perry and company crow about the jobs created by the Texas Enterprise fund, but even many of those jobs–Caterpillar as a good example–were created or moved from another state so employers could pay employees less than they do in other states. Good for the businesses? Sure. Good for Texas? No.
As minimum-wage service jobs continue to increase and state services begin a serious decline thanks to a $25 billion plus shortfall, we’re going to see major problems. The number of uninsured will skyrocket. The number of children suffering from food insecurity will increase. The number of people needing low-income or affordable housing will skyrocket (you can’t live in a $225k home if both bread winners make minimum wage). The number of adults with high school diplomas will decrease because the number of kids dropping out to support themselves or their family will increase. Even the prison and jail population will increase because, lo and behold, it is more economically feasible to make a living selling smack or stealing car stereos.
This is the future of the job market in Texas. We aren’t creating an economy in which a workforce will stimulate the economy with spending. We’re creating an economy that will make slumlords rich and actually increase the need for social services and drive more Texans into poverty. This will hurt higher-end jobs, too because eventually the number of low-wage workers will grow so drastically that the housing market, market for luxury goods, market for new cars, etc. will all hit rock bottom because this class of people won’t be able to buy these goods. Unemployment will rise (again). While this might make competition for low-wage jobs increase, at some point, the growth of the service economy will basically reach parity with the population and job growth will come to a screeching, grinding halt.
We’re not economists, but anyone should be able to see the writing on the wall here. Not every Texan can work at Subway, and at some point, there will be enough McDonald’s and gas stations to serve the state’s population and we hit a wall.
November 8, 2010 at 9:34 pm
[...] After a campaign-work related hiatus, Capitol Annex returns to active blogging with a new look, a new logo, and this post addressing the growth of food service jobs in Texas and why the growth of low wage jobs si…. [...]
November 14, 2010 at 9:43 am
[...] After a campaign-work related hiatus, Capitol Annex returns to active blogging with a new look, a new logo, and this post addressing the growth of food service jobs in Texas and why the growth of low wage jobs si…. [...]
November 23, 2010 at 1:02 am
[...] income inequality that will eventually destabilize the entire country. Just look at Texas… our job growth is in the service sector and as Vince points out, it’s a prescription for economic disaster. As minimum-wage service [...]