||Texas Congressional District 17||Map||||Chet Edwards (D) [bio, $$] vs. Van Taylor (R)||Calhoun, Aransas, San Patricio, Nueces (part)||Bosque, Brazos, Grimes, Hill, Hood, Johnson, Madison, McLennan, Somervell, Burleson (part), Limestone (part), Robertson (part).||

More than a year ago, pundits an analysts across the country predicted that Chet Edwards (D-Waco) would have a tremendous fight on his hands to be able to hold on to the congressional district that includes President Bush’s Crawford ranch.

And, while Edwards has no cake walk in such a Republican district, it is clear he is not facing the fight most people feared in 2005.

Edwards, a seasoned Congressman who votes his district, faces Van Taylor, aka Nicholas Van Campen Taylor, a former aide to a Dallas Republican Congressman, Harvard graduate, and ex-Marine whose family is connected to Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick and has a personal fortune from, among other things, Exxon stock.
For a normal Democratic candidate in a normal election year, this would be a tough race for Edwards who just two years ago defeated Arlene Wholgemuth and became the only Democratic Congressmen to survive Tom DeLay’s mid-decade redistricting.

However, Edwards is no typical Democratic candidate.  More conservative than many Congressional Democrats, Edwards is credited by his constituants as one who is in-touch with his district and votes its conscience (which is fairly conservative) while not totally surrendering his Democratic ideals.

One major signal for Republican opponent Taylor that things weren’t going his way was that Edwards snagged a number of major endorsements from groups that usually side with Republicans: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Federation of Independent Business, Texas Farm Bureau AGFUND, Texas Association of Businesses and the Veterans of Foreign Wars.  Edwards has also snagged the endorsements of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram and Waco Tribune-Herald, neither of which had much good to say about Edwards.

The Final Analysis: Edwards will win this district by a fairly comfortable margin. The district is one with toll road issues and Taylor will not be the beneficiary of full-strength straight ticket Republican voting as some Republicans will doubtless defect to Strayhorn. In addition, Edwards has support from many Republicans who view Taylor as an outsider out for mere political gain.

Edwards should be able to pull 55-56 percent of the vote in this district.