Capitol Annex has upgraded the contest between Sam Murphey (D-Harker Heights) and Ralph Sheffield, Jr. (R-Temple) from “LEAN REPUBLICAN” to “TOSS UP/ADVANTAGE R” and moved the race from our “Races To Watch” list and classified it as a Hot House Race.

A couple of factors have caused the upgrade. First and foremost is Murphey’s serious fundraising advantage over Sheffield. Murphey reported $104,852.07 in contributions, $89,666.32 in expenditures, and $117,280.90 cash on hand for the most recent reporting period. His GOP competitior was more than $20,000 behind in contributions and more than $70,000 behind in cash on hand for the reporting period.

Even in spite of the fundraising numbers, this is still a heavily Republican district. However, Murphey has the advantage of being a retired military man, and having worked for Congressman Chet Edwards (D-Waco) as district director and veterans’ liason, who is overwhelmingly popular in the district.

A heavily military turnout will play a major role in this race. Traditionally, military voters and military overseas ballots (a major consideration in this race) trend Republican. However, given Murphey’s military record and work for Edwards (not to mention actual contact with thousands of vets and retired vets who no doubt remember his service on their behalf), there is more than a chance they will lean his way.

Also, from first-hand accounts in the district on both sides of the aisle, we hear that Murphey is working the district hard. The phrase “outworking the opponent” has been used more than once. While hard work, sadly, won’t win you an election in a Republican leaning district, a combination of hard work, a monetary advantage, a good reputation, a perfect storm and–oh, yes–a district that has a record of voting for downballot Democrats like Chet Edwards–gets you close.

We do have serious concerns that third-party PAC money from Republican PACs will literally flood this district in the last two weeks. A couple of Austin gossip circles have indicated that as many as nine third-party mailers could drop in the final two weeks from various groups all in support of Sheffield and in opposition to Murphey. That is a considerable concern. We emphasize that Austin gossip on this kind of thing isn’t always right, but it is being discussed.

We’ll keep watching the district, and keep you posted.