The Final Stretch: A Look At Texas House District 149
November 2, 2006 by Vince Leibowitz · 1 Comment
“I am focused on this election this time. Two years ago, I had other issues and responsibilities elsewhere I was dealing with, and I didn’t focus completely on the election. And we were lacking a message of performance, being able to accomplish things for Texas. This year I am focused, and we have a message that tells the people what we want to accomplish when I am elected.”
—Talmadge Heflin
That’s what Talmadge Heflin has to say about why he will defeat Hubert Vo on November 7th in the hotly contested House District 149 race.
There are several telling things about Heflin’s comments. First, he mentions things that must have been going on in his personal life, like his attempt to take his former maid’s baby (which also included such stunning statements as “we all know the terrible problem that black male children have growing up into manhood without being in prison”), and admits that Republicans in the Texas legislature had no real record of accomplishment after their first session in power.
The Final Stretch: Texas Congressional District 28
October 31, 2006 by Vince Leibowitz · Leave a Comment
||Texas Congressional District 28||Map||Henry Cuellar (D) [bio, $$, TV] vs. Frank Enriquez [bio, $$, TV] vs. Ron Avery (C)||Harris (part)||3rd Party TV||Frio, Guadalupe, Hidalgo (part), Jim Hogg, La Salle, McMullen, Starr, Webb (all), Wilson, Zapata.||
Texas Congressional District 28 is another Congressional District touched by redistricting.
The Final Stretch: Texas Congressional District 17
October 31, 2006 by Vince Leibowitz · 2 Comments
||Texas Congressional District 17||Map||||Chet Edwards (D) [bio, $$] vs. Van Taylor (R)||Calhoun, Aransas, San Patricio, Nueces (part)||Bosque, Brazos, Grimes, Hill, Hood, Johnson, Madison, McLennan, Somervell, Burleson (part), Limestone (part), Robertson (part).||
More than a year ago, pundits an analysts across the country predicted that Chet Edwards (D-Waco) would have a tremendous fight on his hands to be able to hold on to the congressional district that includes President Bush’s Crawford ranch.
And, while Edwards has no cake walk in such a Republican district, it is clear he is not facing the fight most people feared in 2005.
Edwards, a seasoned Congressman who votes his district, faces Van Taylor, aka Nicholas Van Campen Taylor, a former aide to a Dallas Republican Congressman, Harvard graduate, and ex-Marine whose family is connected to Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick and has a personal fortune from, among other things, Exxon stock.
For a normal Democratic candidate in a normal election year, this would be a tough race for Edwards who just two years ago defeated Arlene Wholgemuth and became the only Democratic Congressmen to survive Tom DeLay’s mid-decade redistricting.
However, Edwards is no typical Democratic candidate. More conservative than many Congressional Democrats, Edwards is credited by his constituants as one who is in-touch with his district and votes its conscience (which is fairly conservative) while not totally surrendering his Democratic ideals.
One major signal for Republican opponent Taylor that things weren’t going his way was that Edwards snagged a number of major endorsements from groups that usually side with Republicans: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Federation of Independent Business, Texas Farm Bureau AGFUND, Texas Association of Businesses and the Veterans of Foreign Wars. Edwards has also snagged the endorsements of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram and Waco Tribune-Herald, neither of which had much good to say about Edwards.
The Final Analysis: Edwards will win this district by a fairly comfortable margin. The district is one with toll road issues and Taylor will not be the beneficiary of full-strength straight ticket Republican voting as some Republicans will doubtless defect to Strayhorn. In addition, Edwards has support from many Republicans who view Taylor as an outsider out for mere political gain.
Edwards should be able to pull 55-56 percent of the vote in this district.
The Final Stretch: Texas House District 134
October 31, 2006 by Vince Leibowitz · 1 Comment
[This is an installment in Capitol Annex's 'The Final Stretch' Series.]
||Texas Houst District 134||Map||Demographics||Election Analysis||Ellen Cohen (D) [bio, $$, TV] vs. Martha Wong (R) vs. Mhair Dekmezian (L)||Harris (part)||3rd Party TV||||Debate Footage||
After House District 32 on the gulf coast, HD 134 in the heart of Houston is Democrats’ next best chance for a pickup.
The district includes the Houston neighborhoods of Meyerland, River Oaks, West University Place, the Texas Medical Center, a small portion of Rice/Military and half of Montrose.
And, it’s where incumbent Martha Wong (R-Houston), is in the fight of her political life.
Democrat Ellen Cohen has Wong on the defensive and has built up strong coalitions within the communities in the district, which give her an advantage and has set the district to flip.
The Final Stretch: Texas House District 93
October 30, 2006 by Vince Leibowitz · Leave a Comment
||Texas Houst District 93||Map||Demographics||Election Analysis||Paula Hightower Pierson (D) [bio, $$, TV] vs. Toby Goodman (R) & Max W. Koch (L)||Tarrant (part)||Podcast Interview||
Two years ago, the chances that House District 93—where Republican Toby Goodman has been ensconched since 1991—would be on the verge of flipping this election cycle, seemed slim.
A dynamic candidate, anti-Republican/anti-incumbent sentiment, and major gaffes by the incumbent, however, have made a flip in this district that includes parts of Arlington, Grand Prairie and Mansfield a distinct possibility this election cycle.
The Final Stretch: Texas House District 3
October 30, 2006 by Vince Leibowitz · Leave a Comment
||Texas Houst District 3||Map||Demographics||Election Analysis||Mark Homer (D) [bio, $$, TV] vs. Kirby Hollingsworth (R)||Lamar, Delta, Hopkins, Franklin, Titus, Red River||
Given that Republican Kirby Hollingsworth (R-Mount Vernon) came within 214 votes of defeating Democrat Mark Homer in 2004, Republicans probably view this northeast Texas seat as their best chance for a pick-up this cycle.
They could not be more wrong. In addition to Hollingsworth’s support from 2004 eroding to such a point that even a former Republican county chairman in the district has given his endorsement to Mark Homer, Hollingsworth is being hit hard by folks in his district because rental home communities he owns are home to sex offenders, murderers, and drug busts.
The Final Stretch: Texas House District 32
October 30, 2006 by Vince Leibowitz · Leave a Comment
[This is the second of several installments in the Capitol Annex series "The Final Stretch." The complete schedule for the series can be found here.]
||Texas Houst District 32||Map||Demographics||Election Analysis||Juan Garcia (D) [bio, $$, TV] vs. Gene Seaman (R)||Calhoun, Aransas, San Patricio, Nueces (part)||3rd Party TV||
Texas House District 32 is far and away the best chance for a Democratic pick-up in the Texas House of Representatives.
Incumbent Republican Gene Seaman (R-Corpus Christi) has been running scared in his race against Democrat Juan Garcia since day one.
The Final Stretch: A Look At Texas Congressional District 21
October 30, 2006 by Vince Leibowitz · Leave a Comment
[NOTE: This is the first of several posts in the Capitol Annex series 'The Final Stretch.']
||Texas Congressional District 21||Map||John Courage (D) [bio, $$, blog, TV] vs. Lamar Smith (R)||Bexar (part) and Travis (part), Real, Bandera, Kerr, Kendall, Blanco, and Comal Counties||
Texas’ Congressional District 21 is one of several districts touched by the court-ordered redistricting plan handed down this summer which was designed to remedy unconstitutional gerrymandering proffered by the Texas Legislature in its marathon (DeLay led) redistrict-a-thon in 2003.
Congressional District 21 includes parts of Bexar (northeastern) and Travis (western) Counties and all of Real, Bandera, Kerr, Kendall, Blanco, and Comal Counties.
Currently represented by Congressman Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio), CD-21 was ironically a more ‘blue’ district prior to the court’s remap this summer, containing many Democratic strongholds in Travis County. However, the remap, which was done to remedy Congressional District 23’s unconstitutionally dilluted Latino voting strength, made CD-21 a much more safe Republican district.
